Nebraska Football: 2019 S&P+ Preseason Release and a Season Projection

With recruiting “done and dusted”, we’ve officially entered the desert of college football. And with the men’s basketball failing to, once again, capture and hold the imagination of the collective fan base, we’re all desperate for content.

Thankfully, here at SB Nation, we have Bill Connelly. For those who don’t know, in addition to writing previews for all 130 FBS teams (Bowling Green and Kent State yesterday!), Bill Connelly is the mind behind the S&P+ rating system for comparing college football teams. The system uses advance analytics and a huge dataset (thousands of games) to estimate the quality of FBS football teams. I’ll let Bill tell you about the numbers, but essentially, S&P+ compares all of the teams to a mythical “average” team. The S&P+ values therefore indicate that for any given team X, their score means they are so many points above or below that average team.

For 2019, Nebraska’s overall S&P+ score is 6.6 (good enough for #45 in the country, 7th in Big Ten), making it barely a touchdown better than the average FBS team. Considering Nebraska is coming off two 4-8 seasons in a row, I’d argue that’s not bad! (It also suggests the top 25 votes coming in early preseason polling MAY be premature, but then again, coaching changes can make things difficult track, especially early in a coaching staff’s tenure at his new school.)

With S&P+ comparing schools to a mythical average program, it’s possible to use these numbers as a sort of barometer for success against a FBS schedule, so I went ahead and took a look at the S&P+ values for Nebraska’s schedule.

Here is a five year outlook of Nebraska’s opponents in 2019, using S&P+.

The 2019 data was obtained from today’s release. The 2015-2018 data were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Bill C. also breaks down the S&P+ to compare offense and defense.

Remember that for the defensive S&P+ value, a lower value is better, as that means a defense allows fewer points than the mythical average team.

Another metric to look at is the 247 Composite, which compares programs’ recruiting hauls across the recruiting rankings assigned by the major services (247, ESPN, Rivals).

These numbers can give us an idea of the talent available. By extending out to five years and weighting by the number of commits, we can get a rough estimate of the talent available per team. I calculated three and five year averages of the scores, weighted by the number of commits.

Using just the S&P+ projections and the 5 year 247 composite score, we can estimate the number of wins based on a straight up comparison of Nebraska and its opponents.

First, I’ll compare just the 2019 projections.

Remember, for all but the defensive S&P+, a higher value is “better”.

Note: An asterisk (*) indicates teams with new head coaches for 2019.

Doing a factor analysis, we see the following:

• Overall S&P+: 8 wins (4 losses)
• Offense S&P+: 10 wins (2 losses)
• Defense S&P+: 4 wins (8 losses)
• 247 Composite: 11 wins (1 loss)

An average of these outcomes yields 8.25 wins.

Next, let’s extend it out to three year composites for both recruiting and S&P+.

Note: An asterisk (*) indicates teams with new head coaches for 2019.

Doing a factor analysis, we see the following:

• Overall S&P+: 5 wins (7 losses)
• Offense S&P+: 9 wins (3 losses)
• Defense S&P+: 5 wins (7 losses)
• 247 Composite: 11 wins (1 loss)

An average of these outcomes yields 7.5 wins.

Finally, let’s look at a five year composite.

Note: An asterisk (*) indicates teams with new head coaches for 2019.

Doing a factor analysis, we see the following:

• Overall S&P+: 8 wins (4 losses)
• Offense S&P+: 10 wins (2 losses)
• Defense S&P+: 6 wins (6 losses)
• 247 Composite: 11 wins (1 loss)

An average of these outcomes yields 8.75 wins.

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Conclusions

Regardless of the window we look at, S&P+ seems to indicate that Nebraska’s defense is the difference between 4 wins and 11 wins. I think Nebraska will need to improve by at least 5-6 points a game by S&P+ in order to secure a 10+ win season and earn a place in the top 25 at the end of the season. To go bowling, Nebraska likely needs to show improvement of about 2-3 points.

At least, that’s my take on the situation. Obviously S&P+ numbers are fluid, and seeded by a historically bad run for Nebraska. While the defense should improve with experience, the offense could falter as replacing Stanley Morgan and Devine Ozigbo will not be an easy task. Reducing offensive output by only a touchdown results in five more losses against the 2019 schedule, and that’s comparing offenses only.

Despite that, I think a combination of Nebraska’s existing and eligible talent, schedule, and offensive prowess should be sufficient to deliver a bowl game to Nebraska. It remains to be seen if this team can unseat Wisconsin (#11 in S&P+) or Iowa (#25) in the Big Ten West.

Twisting my arm, I’d guess 8-4 with losses to Ohio State, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Northwestern. Why Northwestern and not Minnesota, as S&P+ predicts? Because S&P+ undervalues Northwestern annually, and I just don’t see Minnesota improving enough to challenge Nebraska in 2019. Probably a cold take that’ll come back when we’re 6-6 or 7-5 later, but...well...53-28.

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