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Nebraska Football: 2019 S&P+ Preseason Release and a Season Projection

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Can Nebraska go from 4-8 to 8-4? I used the S&P+ numbers for an early guess.

Nebraska v Iowa
less of this = more winning
Photo by Matthew Holst/Getty Images

With recruiting “done and dusted”, we’ve officially entered the desert of college football. And with the men’s basketball failing to, once again, capture and hold the imagination of the collective fan base, we’re all desperate for content.

Thankfully, here at SB Nation, we have Bill Connelly. For those who don’t know, in addition to writing previews for all 130 FBS teams (Bowling Green and Kent State yesterday!), Bill Connelly is the mind behind the S&P+ rating system for comparing college football teams. The system uses advance analytics and a huge dataset (thousands of games) to estimate the quality of FBS football teams. I’ll let Bill tell you about the numbers, but essentially, S&P+ compares all of the teams to a mythical “average” team. The S&P+ values therefore indicate that for any given team X, their score means they are so many points above or below that average team.

For 2019, Nebraska’s overall S&P+ score is 6.6 (good enough for #45 in the country, 7th in Big Ten), making it barely a touchdown better than the average FBS team. Considering Nebraska is coming off two 4-8 seasons in a row, I’d argue that’s not bad! (It also suggests the top 25 votes coming in early preseason polling MAY be premature, but then again, coaching changes can make things difficult track, especially early in a coaching staff’s tenure at his new school.)

With S&P+ comparing schools to a mythical average program, it’s possible to use these numbers as a sort of barometer for success against a FBS schedule, so I went ahead and took a look at the S&P+ values for Nebraska’s schedule.

Here is a five year outlook of Nebraska’s opponents in 2019, using S&P+.

The 2019 data was obtained from today’s release. The 2015-2018 data were obtained from Football Outsiders.

S&P+ Overall Scores over 5 Seasons

Week Team Game Location Head Coach Seasons 2015 S&P+ 2015 Rank 2016 S&P+ 2016 Rank 2017 S&P+ 2017 Rank 2018 S&P+ 2018 Rank 2019 S&P+ 2019 Rank 15-19 S&P+ 17-19 S&P+
Week Team Game Location Head Coach Seasons 2015 S&P+ 2015 Rank 2016 S&P+ 2016 Rank 2017 S&P+ 2017 Rank 2018 S&P+ 2018 Rank 2019 S&P+ 2019 Rank 15-19 S&P+ 17-19 S&P+
1 South Alabama Home 1 -10.4 104 -9.4 101 -12 106 -17.7 117 -20.8 127 -14.1 -16.8
2 Colorado Away 0 -4 87 6.3 53 2 64 -0.7 80 1.7 72 1.1 1.0
3 Northern Illinois Home 0 -0.9 82 -2.4 77 -1.4 75 -2.7 89 -0.6 76 -1.6 -1.6
4 Illinois Away 3 2.7 68 -6.7 94 -7.4 96 -7.9 97 -3.8 91 -4.6 -6.4
5 Ohio State Home 0 29.5 1 22.4 10 30.9 2 24.1 6 24.3 7 26.2 26.4
6 Northwestern Home 14 0.2 75 2.9 61 11.2 27 1.9 68 4.2 57 4.1 5.8
8 Minnesota Away 2 8.1 46 12.6 24 0.4 72 6.3 45 9.5 38 7.4 5.4
9 Indiana Home 3 0.4 74 4.6 57 10.2 33 1.6 70 6.4 46 4.6 6.1
10 Purdue Away 3 -7.4 96 -11 105 5.8 48 6.5 44 4.2 58 -0.4 5.5
12 Wisconsin Home 5 15.1 22 16.1 16 26.8 3 15.5 19 20.1 11 18.7 20.8
13 Maryland Away 0 -1.6 83 -0.6 68 -4.5 86 3 59 2.1 67 -0.3 0.2
14 Iowa Home 20 9.3 42 10.3 37 9.8 35 13.3 23 12.5 25 11.0 11.9
Nebraska 1 11.1 33 10.3 38 2.5 62 5.4 49 6.6 45 7.2 4.8

Bill C. also breaks down the S&P+ to compare offense and defense.

S&P+ Offense 5 Years

Week Team Game Location Head Coach Seasons 2015 S&P+ 2015 Rank 2016 S&P+ 2016 Rank 2017 S&P+ 2017 Rank 2018 S&P+ 2018 Rank 2019 S&P+ 2019 Rank 15-19 S&P+ 17-19 S&P+
Week Team Game Location Head Coach Seasons 2015 S&P+ 2015 Rank 2016 S&P+ 2016 Rank 2017 S&P+ 2017 Rank 2018 S&P+ 2018 Rank 2019 S&P+ 2019 Rank 15-19 S&P+ 17-19 S&P+
1 South Alabama Home 1 24.3 97 25.2 90 18.3 123 24.5 101 22.5 109 23.0 21.8
2 Colorado Away 0 25.8 89 29.3 65 30.3 54 27 85 28.7 73 28.2 28.7
3 Northern Illinois Home 0 26.1 86 32 51 21 112 19.1 117 18.9 120 23.4 19.7
4 Illinois Away 3 22.7 104 22.7 106 21.6 109 29.1 70 31.1 54 25.4 27.3
5 Ohio State Home 0 41.3 14 35.6 32 42.9 3 44.4 4 41.3 6 41.1 42.9
6 Northwestern Home 14 16.8 122 27.9 75 28.8 60 25.5 94 24.3 100 24.7 26.2
8 Minnesota Away 2 28.1 72 27.8 76 23.9 100 28.2 75 32.2 45 28.0 28.1
9 Indiana Home 3 37.5 25 25.1 91 28.6 66 30.2 55 33 40 30.9 30.6
10 Purdue Away 3 26.6 82 25.1 92 28.6 63 37.2 17 32.9 42 30.1 32.9
12 Wisconsin Home 5 27 76 30.5 59 37.4 18 39.3 12 42.6 5 35.4 39.8
13 Maryland Away 0 26.1 87 28.7 70 26.7 80 27.6 80 29.2 69 27.7 27.8
14 Iowa Home 20 30.1 63 29 68 28.4 70 30.3 54 31.8 48 29.9 30.2
Nebraska 1 35.4 33 37.7 24 25.6 85 32.7 42 33.7 35 33.0 30.7

Remember that for the defensive S&P+ value, a lower value is better, as that means a defense allows fewer points than the mythical average team.

S&P+ Defense, 5 Years

Week Team Game Location Head Coach Seasons 2015 S&P+ 2015 Rank 2016 S&P+ 2016 Rank 2017 S&P+ 2017 Rank 2018 S&P+ 2018 Rank 2019 S&P+ 2019 Rank 15-19 S&P+ 17-19 S&P+
Week Team Game Location Head Coach Seasons 2015 S&P+ 2015 Rank 2016 S&P+ 2016 Rank 2017 S&P+ 2017 Rank 2018 S&P+ 2018 Rank 2019 S&P+ 2019 Rank 15-19 S&P+ 17-19 S&P+
1 South Alabama Home 1 33.4 102 33.3 92 31.4 90 42 123 43.4 126 36.7 38.9
2 Colorado Away 0 28.5 71 21.7 28 30.1 84 27.2 58 27 62 26.9 28.1
3 Northern Illinois Home 0 25.4 52 32.7 91 20.5 26 20.8 23 19.5 19 23.8 20.3
4 Illinois Away 3 20.2 23 29.5 77 29.9 81 38.6 115 34.9 106 30.6 34.5
5 Ohio State Home 0 13.5 6 15 8 12.8 7 21.2 26 17 14 15.9 17.0
6 Northwestern Home 14 15 8 23.5 37 17.4 17 21.6 30 20 21 19.5 19.7
8 Minnesota Away 2 22.4 36 17.5 13 22.1 31 22.8 39 22.7 34 21.5 22.5
9 Indiana Home 3 35.9 109 19.4 20 20.2 25 29.1 75 26.6 59 26.2 25.3
10 Purdue Away 3 33.5 103 35.6 103 22.1 32 30.8 88 28.7 74 30.1 27.2
12 Wisconsin Home 5 12.4 4 14.8 7 11.6 4 21.6 29 22.5 33 16.6 18.6
13 Maryland Away 0 26.5 56 28.1 63 28.3 72 25.9 51 27.2 65 27.2 27.1
14 Iowa Home 20 21 28 18.9 18 19.4 21 17.7 18 19.3 18 19.3 18.8
Nebraska 1 25 48 28.3 65 23.7 40 26.9 55 27.1 64 26.2 25.9

Another metric to look at is the 247 Composite, which compares programs’ recruiting hauls across the recruiting rankings assigned by the major services (247, ESPN, Rivals).

These numbers can give us an idea of the talent available. By extending out to five years and weighting by the number of commits, we can get a rough estimate of the talent available per team. I calculated three and five year averages of the scores, weighted by the number of commits.

247 Composite Recruiting Scores

Week Team Game Location Head Coach Seasons 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 3 Year 5 Year
Week Team Game Location Head Coach Seasons 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 3 Year 5 Year
1 South Alabama Home 1 132.2 134.1 110.2 120 132.6 123.2 127.3
2 Colorado Away 0 162 160.4 203.8 186.9 194.3 195.5 184.5
3 Northern Illinois Home 0 138.9 111.4 122.7 141.7 134 132.9 130.5
4 Illinois Away 3 181.7 153.6 185.2 185.8 175.5 183.6 176.5
5 Ohio State Home 0 279.6 289.1 312.1 317.1 261.2 300.6 293.4
6 Northwestern Home 14 174.8 174.9 182.1 180.2 188.1 183.5 179.9
8 Minnesota Away 2 167 182.2 171.4 206.7 196 190.9 184.5
9 Indiana Home 3 175.4 172.2 168 190.8 201.9 186.7 181.8
10 Purdue Away 3 162.9 145.1 158.9 188.3 224.7 191.1 176.8
12 Wisconsin Home 5 189.9 202.9 193.9 195 219.5 202.8 200.4
13 Maryland Away 0 182.3 190.2 230.2 218.3 176.9 212.9 203.3
14 Iowa Home 20 170 181.4 191.4 203.3 199.4 198.2 189.4
Nebraska 1 211.7 216.8 224.3 228 244.1 233.1 226.1

Using just the S&P+ projections and the 5 year 247 composite score, we can estimate the number of wins based on a straight up comparison of Nebraska and its opponents.

First, I’ll compare just the 2019 projections.

Remember, for all but the defensive S&P+, a higher value is “better”.

2019 S&P+ Projection

Team Game Location Overall S&P+ Opp Overall S&P+ NEB Expect Winner Off S&P+ Opp Off S&P+ NEB Expect Winner Def S&P+ Opp Def S&P+ NEB Expect Winner 5 Year Recruiting Opp 5 Year Recruiting NEB Expect Winner
Team Game Location Overall S&P+ Opp Overall S&P+ NEB Expect Winner Off S&P+ Opp Off S&P+ NEB Expect Winner Def S&P+ Opp Def S&P+ NEB Expect Winner 5 Year Recruiting Opp 5 Year Recruiting NEB Expect Winner
South Alabama Home -20.8 6.6 NEB 22.5 33.7 NEB 43.4 27.1 NEB 127.3 226.1 NEB
Colorado* Away 1.7 6.6 NEB 28.7 33.7 NEB 27.0 27.1 Colorado* 184.5 226.1 NEB
Northern Illinois* Home -0.6 6.6 NEB 18.9 33.7 NEB 19.5 27.1 Northern Illinois* 130.5 226.1 NEB
Illinois Away -3.8 6.6 NEB 31.1 33.7 NEB 34.9 27.1 NEB 176.5 226.1 NEB
Ohio State* Home 24.3 6.6 Ohio State* 41.3 33.7 Ohio State* 17.0 27.1 Ohio State* 293.4 226.1 Ohio State*
Northwestern Home 4.2 6.6 NEB 24.3 33.7 NEB 20.0 27.1 Northwestern 179.9 226.1 NEB
Minnesota Away 9.5 6.6 Minnesota 32.2 33.7 NEB 22.7 27.1 Minnesota 184.5 226.1 NEB
Indiana Home 6.4 6.6 NEB 33.0 33.7 NEB 26.6 27.1 Indiana 181.8 226.1 NEB
Purdue Away 4.2 6.6 NEB 32.9 33.7 NEB 28.7 27.1 NEB 176.8 226.1 NEB
Wisconsin Home 20.1 6.6 Wisconsin 42.6 33.7 Wisconsin 22.5 27.1 Wisconsin 200.4 226.1 NEB
Maryland* Away 2.1 6.6 NEB 29.2 33.7 NEB 27.2 27.1 NEB 203.3 226.1 NEB
Iowa Home 12.5 6.6 Iowa 31.8 33.7 NEB 19.3 27.1 Iowa 189.4 226.1 NEB

Note: An asterisk (*) indicates teams with new head coaches for 2019.

Doing a factor analysis, we see the following:

  • Overall S&P+: 8 wins (4 losses)
  • Offense S&P+: 10 wins (2 losses)
  • Defense S&P+: 4 wins (8 losses)
  • 247 Composite: 11 wins (1 loss)

An average of these outcomes yields 8.25 wins.

Next, let’s extend it out to three year composites for both recruiting and S&P+.

Three Year Composite Projections

Team Game Location Overall S&P+ Opp Overall S&P+ NEB Expect Winner Off S&P+ Opp Off S&P+ NEB Expect Winner Def S&P+ Opp Def S&P+ NEB Expect Winner 5 Year Recruiting Opp 5 Year Recruiting NEB Expect Winner
Team Game Location Overall S&P+ Opp Overall S&P+ NEB Expect Winner Off S&P+ Opp Off S&P+ NEB Expect Winner Def S&P+ Opp Def S&P+ NEB Expect Winner 5 Year Recruiting Opp 5 Year Recruiting NEB Expect Winner
South Alabama Home -16.8 4.8 NEB 21.8 30.7 NEB 38.9 25.9 NEB 123.2 233.1 NEB
Colorado* Away 1.0 4.8 NEB 28.7 30.7 NEB 28.1 25.9 NEB 195.5 233.1 NEB
Northern Illinois* Home -1.6 4.8 NEB 19.7 30.7 NEB 20.3 25.9 Northern Illinois* 132.9 233.1 NEB
Illinois Away -6.4 4.8 NEB 27.3 30.7 NEB 34.5 25.9 NEB 183.6 233.1 NEB
Ohio State* Home 26.4 4.8 Ohio State* 42.9 30.7 Ohio State* 17.0 25.9 Ohio State* 300.6 233.1 Ohio State*
Northwestern Home 5.8 4.8 Northwestern 26.2 30.7 NEB 19.7 25.9 Northwestern 183.5 233.1 NEB
Minnesota Away 5.4 4.8 Minnesota 28.1 30.7 NEB 22.5 25.9 Minnesota 190.9 233.1 NEB
Indiana Home 6.1 4.8 Indiana 30.6 30.7 NEB 25.3 25.9 Indiana 186.7 233.1 NEB
Purdue Away 5.5 4.8 Purdue 32.9 30.7 Purdue 27.2 25.9 NEB 191.1 233.1 NEB
Wisconsin Home 20.8 4.8 Wisconsin 39.8 30.7 Wisconsin 18.6 25.9 Wisconsin 202.8 233.1 NEB
Maryland* Away 0.2 4.8 NEB 27.8 30.7 NEB 27.1 25.9 NEB 212.9 233.1 NEB
Iowa Home 11.9 4.8 Iowa 30.2 30.7 NEB 18.8 25.9 Iowa 198.2 233.1 NEB

Note: An asterisk (*) indicates teams with new head coaches for 2019.

Doing a factor analysis, we see the following:

  • Overall S&P+: 5 wins (7 losses)
  • Offense S&P+: 9 wins (3 losses)
  • Defense S&P+: 5 wins (7 losses)
  • 247 Composite: 11 wins (1 loss)

An average of these outcomes yields 7.5 wins.

Finally, let’s look at a five year composite.

Five Year Composite Projections

Team Game Location Overall S&P+ Opp Overall S&P+ NEB Expect Winner Off S&P+ Opp Off S&P+ NEB Expect Winner Def S&P+ Opp Def S&P+ NEB Expect Winner 5 Year Recruiting Opp 5 Year Recruiting NEB Expect Winner
Team Game Location Overall S&P+ Opp Overall S&P+ NEB Expect Winner Off S&P+ Opp Off S&P+ NEB Expect Winner Def S&P+ Opp Def S&P+ NEB Expect Winner 5 Year Recruiting Opp 5 Year Recruiting NEB Expect Winner
South Alabama Home -14.1 7.18 NEB 23.0 33.02 NEB 36.7 26.2 NEB 127.3 226.1 NEB
Colorado* Away 1.1 7.18 NEB 28.2 33.02 NEB 26.9 26.2 NEB 184.5 226.1 NEB
Northern Illinois* Home -1.6 7.18 NEB 23.4 33.02 NEB 23.8 26.2 Northern Illinois* 130.5 226.1 NEB
Illinois Away -4.6 7.18 NEB 25.4 33.02 NEB 30.6 26.2 NEB 176.5 226.1 NEB
Ohio State* Home 26.2 7.18 Ohio State* 41.1 33.02 Ohio State* 15.9 26.2 Ohio State* 293.4 226.1 Ohio State*
Northwestern Home 4.1 7.18 NEB 24.7 33.02 NEB 19.5 26.2 Northwestern 179.9 226.1 NEB
Minnesota Away 7.4 7.18 Minnesota 28.0 33.02 NEB 21.5 26.2 Minnesota 184.5 226.1 NEB
Indiana Home 4.6 7.18 NEB 30.9 33.02 NEB 26.2 26.2 NEB 181.8 226.1 NEB
Purdue Away -0.4 7.18 NEB 30.1 33.02 NEB 30.1 26.2 NEB 176.8 226.1 NEB
Wisconsin Home 18.7 7.18 Wisconsin 35.4 33.02 Wisconsin 16.6 26.2 Wisconsin 200.4 226.1 NEB
Maryland* Away -0.3 7.18 NEB 27.7 33.02 NEB 27.2 26.2 NEB 203.3 226.1 NEB
Iowa Home 11.0 7.18 Iowa 29.9 33.02 NEB 19.3 26.2 Iowa 189.4 226.1 NEB

Note: An asterisk (*) indicates teams with new head coaches for 2019.

Doing a factor analysis, we see the following:

  • Overall S&P+: 8 wins (4 losses)
  • Offense S&P+: 10 wins (2 losses)
  • Defense S&P+: 6 wins (6 losses)
  • 247 Composite: 11 wins (1 loss)

An average of these outcomes yields 8.75 wins.

***

Conclusions

Regardless of the window we look at, S&P+ seems to indicate that Nebraska’s defense is the difference between 4 wins and 11 wins. I think Nebraska will need to improve by at least 5-6 points a game by S&P+ in order to secure a 10+ win season and earn a place in the top 25 at the end of the season. To go bowling, Nebraska likely needs to show improvement of about 2-3 points.

At least, that’s my take on the situation. Obviously S&P+ numbers are fluid, and seeded by a historically bad run for Nebraska. While the defense should improve with experience, the offense could falter as replacing Stanley Morgan and Devine Ozigbo will not be an easy task. Reducing offensive output by only a touchdown results in five more losses against the 2019 schedule, and that’s comparing offenses only.

Despite that, I think a combination of Nebraska’s existing and eligible talent, schedule, and offensive prowess should be sufficient to deliver a bowl game to Nebraska. It remains to be seen if this team can unseat Wisconsin (#11 in S&P+) or Iowa (#25) in the Big Ten West.

Twisting my arm, I’d guess 8-4 with losses to Ohio State, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Northwestern. Why Northwestern and not Minnesota, as S&P+ predicts? Because S&P+ undervalues Northwestern annually, and I just don’t see Minnesota improving enough to challenge Nebraska in 2019. Probably a cold take that’ll come back when we’re 6-6 or 7-5 later, but...well...53-28.

***

More tables!

Big Ten S&P+ Overall, Five Years

Team Game Location Head Coach Seasons 2015 S&P+ 2015 Rank 2016 S&P+ 2016 Rank 2017 S&P+ 2017 Rank 2018 S&P+ 2018 Rank 2019 S&P+ 2019 Rank 15-19 S&P+ 17-19 S&P+
Team Game Location Head Coach Seasons 2015 S&P+ 2015 Rank 2016 S&P+ 2016 Rank 2017 S&P+ 2017 Rank 2018 S&P+ 2018 Rank 2019 S&P+ 2019 Rank 15-19 S&P+ 17-19 S&P+
Illinois Away 3 2.7 68 -6.7 94 -7.4 96 -7.9 97 -3.8 91 -4.62 -6.37
Ohio State* Home 0 29.5 1 22.4 10 30.9 2 24.1 6 24.3 7 26.24 26.43
Northwestern Home 14 0.2 75 2.9 61 11.2 27 1.9 68 4.2 57 4.08 5.77
Minnesota Away 2 8.1 46 12.6 24 0.4 72 6.3 45 9.5 38 7.38 5.40
Indiana Home 3 0.4 74 4.6 57 10.2 33 1.6 70 6.4 46 4.64 6.07
Purdue Away 3 -7.4 96 -11 105 5.8 48 6.5 44 4.2 58 -0.38 5.50
Wisconsin Home 5 15.1 22 16.1 16 26.8 3 15.5 19 20.1 11 18.72 20.80
Maryland* Away 0 -1.6 83 -0.6 68 -4.5 86 3 59 2.1 67 -0.32 0.20
Iowa Home 20 9.3 42 10.3 37 9.8 35 13.3 23 12.5 25 11.04 11.87
Nebraska 1 11.1 33 10.3 38 2.5 62 5.4 49 6.6 45 7.18 4.83
Michigan 5 19.7 10 24.4 6 19.6 13 22 10 21.6 9 21.46 21.07
Michigan State 13 15.6 20 7.4 51 13.8 23 11.5 30 12.6 23 12.18 12.63
Penn State 5 11.3 32 19 11 26 6 19 15 18.4 14 18.74 21.13
Rutgers 4 -10.1 101 -14.9 117 -5.5 92 -12.3 108 -12.3 108 -11.02 -10.03

B1G Offenses, Five Years S&P+

Team Game Location Head Coach Seasons 2015 S&P+ 2015 Rank 2016 S&P+ 2016 Rank 2017 S&P+ 2017 Rank 2018 S&P+ 2018 Rank 2019 S&P+ 2019 Rank 15-19 S&P+ 17-19 S&P+
Team Game Location Head Coach Seasons 2015 S&P+ 2015 Rank 2016 S&P+ 2016 Rank 2017 S&P+ 2017 Rank 2018 S&P+ 2018 Rank 2019 S&P+ 2019 Rank 15-19 S&P+ 17-19 S&P+
Illinois Away 3 22.7 104 22.7 106 21.6 109 29.1 70 31.1 54 25.44 27.27
Ohio State Home 0 41.3 14 35.6 32 42.9 3 44.4 4 41.3 6 41.1 42.87
Northwestern Home 14 16.8 122 27.9 75 28.8 60 25.5 94 24.3 100 24.66 26.2
Minnesota Away 2 28.1 72 27.8 76 23.9 100 28.2 75 32.2 45 28.04 28.1
Indiana Home 3 37.5 25 25.1 91 28.6 66 30.2 55 33 40 30.88 30.6
Purdue Away 3 26.6 82 25.1 92 28.6 63 37.2 17 32.9 42 30.08 32.9
Wisconsin Home 5 27 76 30.5 59 37.4 18 39.3 12 42.6 5 35.36 39.77
Maryland Away 0 26.1 87 28.7 70 26.7 80 27.6 80 29.2 69 27.66 27.83
Iowa Home 20 30.1 63 29 68 28.4 70 30.3 54 31.8 48 29.92 30.17
Nebraska 1 35.4 33 37.7 24 25.6 85 32.7 42 33.7 35 33.02 30.67
Michigan 5 35.2 34 34.8 35 31.1 49 35.5 25 38.2 14 34.96 34.93
Michigan State 13 35.7 30 31 55 27.7 72 22 112 25.1 96 28.3 24.93
Penn State 5 28.4 71 38 23 41.5 5 33.9 36 31.4 51 34.64 35.6
Rutgers 4 29.3 66 17.3 124 23.3 101 15 123 18.7 121 20.72 19

B1G Defenses, Five Years S&P+

Team Game Location Head Coach Seasons 2015 S&P+ 2015 Rank 2016 S&P+ 2016 Rank 2017 S&P+ 2017 Rank 2018 S&P+ 2018 Rank 2019 S&P+ 2019 Rank 15-19 S&P+ 17-19 S&P+
Team Game Location Head Coach Seasons 2015 S&P+ 2015 Rank 2016 S&P+ 2016 Rank 2017 S&P+ 2017 Rank 2018 S&P+ 2018 Rank 2019 S&P+ 2019 Rank 15-19 S&P+ 17-19 S&P+
Illinois Away 3 20.2 23 29.5 77 29.9 81 38.6 115 34.9 106 30.6 34.5
Ohio State Home 0 13.5 6 15 8 12.8 7 21.2 26 17 14 15.9 17
Northwestern Home 14 15 8 23.5 37 17.4 17 21.6 30 20 21 19.5 19.7
Minnesota Away 2 22.4 36 17.5 13 22.1 31 22.8 39 22.7 34 21.5 22.5
Indiana Home 3 35.9 109 19.4 20 20.2 25 29.1 75 26.6 59 26.2 25.3
Purdue Away 3 33.5 103 35.6 103 22.1 32 30.8 88 28.7 74 30.1 27.2
Wisconsin Home 5 12.4 4 14.8 7 11.6 4 21.6 29 22.5 33 16.6 18.6
Maryland Away 0 26.5 56 28.1 63 28.3 72 25.9 51 27.2 65 27.2 27.1
Iowa Home 20 21 28 18.9 18 19.4 21 17.7 18 19.3 18 19.3 18.8
Nebraska 1 25 48 28.3 65 23.7 40 26.9 55 27.1 64 26.2 25.9
Michigan 5 16.2 10 11.1 3 11.8 5 14.3 9 16.6 13 14 14.2
Michigan State 13 20.6 26 24.1 39 15.1 11 10.8 2 12.5 3 16.6 12.8
Penn State 5 19 15 20.9 25 14.9 10 14.6 11 13 4 16.5 14.2
Rutgers 4 37.1 112 29.9 79 29 78 28.5 67 31 87 31.1 29.5

B1G 247 Composite Scores, Five Years

Team Game Location Head Coach Seasons 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 3 Year 5 Year
Team Game Location Head Coach Seasons 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 3 Year 5 Year
Illinois Away 3 181.74 153.64 185.24 185.83 175.54 176.48 183.56
Ohio State Home 0 279.6 289.12 312.14 317.06 261.18 293.36 300.6
Northwestern Home 14 174.83 174.91 182.07 180.18 188.14 179.92 183.52
Minnesota Away 2 167.01 182.22 171.42 206.66 196.04 184.48 190.91
Indiana Home 3 175.35 172.23 167.99 190.77 201.94 181.78 186.69
Purdue Away 3 162.85 145.09 158.89 188.31 224.72 176.75 191.09
Wisconsin Home 5 189.85 202.85 193.87 195.04 219.51 200.42 202.83
Maryland Away 0 182.31 190.15 230.17 218.34 176.89 203.27 212.93
Iowa Home 20 169.99 181.39 191.44 203.34 199.36 189.39 198.2
Nebraska 1 211.72 216.76 224.33 227.95 244.05 226.06 233.05
Michigan 5 194.82 280.38 296.03 230.56 277.15 265.35 272.9
Michigan State 13 221.77 239.13 203.65 212.21 215.21 217.52 209.74
Penn State 5 250 237.79 240.47 285.92 270.67 257.5 266.06
Rutgers 4 172.19 163.8 189.01 182.24 176.86 177.43 183.15