clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Nebraska's Odds Of Winning The Rest Of Their Games

New, 13 comments
Things look a lot better than they did a week ago.
Things look a lot better than they did a week ago.

Once again, from Steve R on Mike Nolan's Husker email list, comes Nebraska's odds of winning their games for the rest of the season. 

Husker fans who watched the Michigan - Michigan State game saw a Wolverine team that was very beatable, unable to successfully execute a passing game against a Spartan defense that's better than everyone thought they would be. The good news is that Nebraska gets Michigan State at home. 

The Husker's were idle, but it was a good week odds-wise.  Massey's odds on beating Michigan St in Lincoln went down, but only 67% to 62%.

Meanwhile, the odds of beating Michigan improved from 31% to 42%, the odds of beating Penn St went from 49% to 58%, the odds of beating Iowa went from 83% to 88%, and the odds of beating Northwester went from 93% to 96%.  The odds for Minnesota remained at 97%.  So, the predicted record went from 9.2-2.8 to 9.43-2.57.  The odds of 10-2 or better now is nearly 50%.

0-6:  0.00%

1-5:  0.09%

2-4:  1.91%

3-3: 13.89%

4-2: 35.51%

5-1: 36.23%

6-0: 12.38%

4.43-1.57

Michigan St's predicted conference record is 6.22-1.78, compared to 5.43-2.57 for Nebraska.  Even though Michigan lost, they are favored in every remaining game (unlike MSU which is the underdog against Wisconsin and at NU and Nebraska which is the underdog @Michigan) and their predicted conference record is 5.57-2.43.

Nebraska may have to beat both MSU and Michigan to win the division. Likely, MSU only needs to split against NU and Wisconsin (if it wins its other games) and Michigan only needs to beat Nebraska (if it wins its other games).

Even though both NU and MSU control their destiny, I think Michigan is the favorite, being favored in every game.  On the other hand, if MSU beats either Wisconsin or NU, they don't have another very tough game on the schedule (the toughest is 72% @Iowa).  If NU can beat MSU, they still have to win at Penn St to setup a showdown with Michigan.