Colorado - Under the Hood

Colorado's record on the season is 2-9. We're going to line up some statistical numbers by both teams and see how they compare.

Here's the Buff's 2006 schedule:

Montana State L 19-10
Colorado St? L 14-10
Arizona State L 21-3
@Georgia L 14-13
@Missouri L 28-13
Baylor L 34-31 3OT
Texas Tech W 30-6
@Oklahoma L 24-3
Kansas L 20-15
Kansas State L 34-21
Iowa State W 33-16

Average margin of victory in their two wins - 20.5 points.
Average margin of victory in losses....7.88

Not much to say about their two wins - both at home, against one of the better offenses in the nation in Texas Tech, and one of the worst in Iowa State. Typical of a new coach, a sporadic team that is capable of playing well at times. Unfortunately for Colorado, they've played poorly most of the season. They haven't been blown out much, which is indicative of a team that will continue to play throughout the entire game. Sagarin ranks Colorado at 105th. They have a number of Div IAA teams ranked ahead of them. Their schedule is at 50th (compare to Nebraska's Sagarin ranking at 27, schedule at 60).

What about Colorado's performance statistically? Below are tables of Colorado's season totals, with national rank in parentheses.

As a rushing team, the Buffs aren't bad. Passing offense is abysmal. Stating the obvious is the fact that the Buff just can't score. Nebraska has done very well at scoring, and we're very balanced in our offense. The number of rushing/passing touchdowns is nearly even - what you'd expect from a West Coast Offense team - diversity and balance.

Colorado has a good rushing defense, in the top 20, but a little lower on scoring defense, which means they're not that great at keeping people out of the end zone. Nebraska's defense has more of a 'bend-don't break' mentality. We've given up a fair number of yards, but cut down on scoring.

How do the offensive and defensive numbers relate to the teams' 2006 schedule? The following chart shows the national rank in total offense and total defense for each of the 2006 opponents. Montana State and Nicholls State are Div 1AA teams and are therefore excluded.

So what do we see when looking at the stats versus the opponents?

- Nebraska has played against some pretty decent offensive teams. Colorado has played only Mizzou and Texas Tech that ranked in the top 20. One loss, one win for them. Odd, unless you consider Texas Tech was at home.

- Nebraska hasn't faced a top 20 defense. Colorado has faced two - Georgia and Oklahoma.

- Both teams are strong in rushing the ball, but the Husker passing offense is far superior to that of the Buffs. Gives you the idea that Nebraska is going to shut down the run, and make Colorado beat them in the air. On offense, no doubt that Nebraska's tall receivers will make a difference in scoring in the red zone.

- The margin of loss by Colorado isn't that bad, like we noted above, they really haven't gotten blown out by anyone. Their two wins came at home. Oklahoma's defense stymied the Buffaloes, only allowing three points, their lowest all year.

- Funny when you look at this how there are a lot of people around the nation talking about Nebraska as a rushing team. Yet, we've scored more TD's through the air. Things never change, do they?

- Anything else that stands out?

[Update] - HT to BON for this completely stolen idea. I liked it, I stole it.