Iowa State Cyclones (14-15, 3-11) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (16-11, 6-8)

6:30 PM, Bob Devaney Sports Center, Lincoln, NE

TV: FSN Midwest, ESPN Full Court/ESPN360; Radio: Husker Sports Network

Opponent's Blog: Clone Chronicles

With the NCAA Tournament effectively out of reach, the Huskers need to recoup and focus on getting to .500 in conference and getting a first-round home game in the NIT during the final week of Big XII play.  The Huskers are all but locked into the 8-9 game in the Big XII Tournament, which would likely be an immediate rematch against Saturday's opponent, Baylor, unless Texas A&M loses to Colorado tonight and Missouri on Saturday.  The Cyclones, however, can move into the #9 slot by winning tonight and Saturday, and Nebraska beats Baylor on Saturday.

Not counting a potential NIT home game, tonight will be the final home game for four Husker seniors: Steve Harley, Paul Velander, Nick Krenk, and Ade Dagunduro.  Harley, Velander, and Dagunduro have all been major on-the-court contributors in their time at NU, and Ade has a shot at 2nd- or 3rd-team All-Big XII honors this year.   Nick Krenk was a former student manager who tried out for and made the team during Doc's first year, and has contributed with minutes in clean-up time over the last 3 years.

In other news, it appears that Ade may not be the last Dagunduro in the pipeline: He and Ola have a younger brother, Olayinka, who is a freshman high school quarterback in California.   He is talking now about wanting to play for USC (who doesn't these days?), but with two older brothers who played at Nebraska, maybe he'll keep the tradition alive.

Sometimes, I just feel like opening the window and screaming at the top of my lungs in frustration when I watch the Huskers play.  It's one thing to go cold for long stretches.  It's another to choke away a huge lead -- at home -- because they stop doing what got them ahead.

It happened earlier this year against Missouri, but the Tigers couldn't hit the shots down the stretch.  A&M started drilling shots late in the game, and Nebraska -- which didn't commit a turnover until 11:00 to go in the second half -- had 8 turnovers in the last 11 minutes to give A&M 10 easy points.

What happened?  Well, Ade Dagunduro came out with 5 quick points after halftime, then vanished.  Steve Harley was hitting shots in the first half, then couldn't hit anything.  Velander didn't get touches at all.  Anderson was missing shots.

The biggest thing, though, was that the Huskers backed off the aggressive drive-and-shoot scheme they used for a number of easy shots in the first half run.  Just like they do every time they get a lead.  Seriously -- ATTACK THE BASKET!

A&M kept chipping away.  NU would stop them 3 or 4 possessions in a row, but couldn't hit a shot to put it away.  NU missed only 2 FTs all game.  Unfortunately, one of them was Cookie's 1-and-1 attempt with 20 seconds to go.

The officiating was all over the place on both sides.  A&M didn't get called for a number of horrible moving screens, but did get a questionable technical on a "chin-up" dunk.  On the other hand, they also got the benefit of two horrible calls in the final minutes.

Then, of course, Josh Carter went and did what he seems to do best -- drain a 3 in the Devaney Center to beat the Huskers.

Report Card

Offense: F.  The offense earns an "A" for the first half, but completely came unglued in the second.  The Huskers backed off the aggressive drive offense in  the second half, and died.

Defense: B.  A+ for most of the game, but there were enough lapses late in the game to drag this down.  Huskers stopped A&M seemingly every possession for most of the game.

Rebounding: D.  This was an "B" in the first half, when the Huskers were only out-rebounded by 1.  The Huskers kept A&M from getting second-chance shots until late, but the Aggies erupted for 11 offensive boards, mostly late in the game.

Ball Handling: B.  Zero turnovers for 29 minutes is impressive.  Eight in 11 is impressive in a different way.  It makes it so much worse that every Husker turnover seemed to be incredibly costly.

Coaching: C.  I have no idea what happened after halftime, but the team came out asleep, and that's on Doc.  This team is used to being the underdog, but it needs to know how to play with a lead.

Overall: D.  It's hard to believe that the first half and second half were from the same game.  In the first half, Nebraska looked like the far, far better team.  In the "third quarter," the teams looked fairly even.  In the last 12 minutes, NU looked like a high school JV team.  It doesn't frustrate me that NU loses games; it frustrates me that they should win these games and find a way to lose.

Nebraska Cornhuskers (16-8, 6-5) at #15/#18 Kansas Jayhawks (21-5, 10-1)

3 PM, Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence, KS

TV: Big 12 Network; Radio: Husker Sports Network (also on Sirius 123)

Opponents' Blog: Rock Chalk Talk

84-49.  92-39.  96-54.  59-57.  78-67.  92-59.  96-57.  84-62.  97-82.

Those are the scores of the Husker's last 9 trips to Lawrence since breaking the 16-year drought in Allen Fieldhouse in 1999.  Exactly once have the Huskers been within ten points,, and only three times within 20.  The last three were especially painful, as the Huskers seemed to play scared in front of the mighty incoming class of 2005-06 that went on to win a national title as juniors last year.

The Huskers don't need to win this game, but it sure could help.  The rest of the schedule is filled with fellow bubble teams and Iowa State, not exactly the best opportunity to build an at-large resume.  Worse, get blown out by a good team on the road for the second straight Saturday, and serious questions about the ability to win on the road come up.  Quite frankly, the NCAA Selection committee is looking for teams with more impressive road wins than TCU, Colorado, and Texas Tech.

There is hope.  The Huskers finally stopped being afraid of KU in last year's Big XII Tournament, and then kept the game within a point in the final minute a few weeks ago in Lincoln.  They know that this KU team is beatable.  It won't be easy -- the Huskers need to score, and get all the people who've been cold the last two games (Steve Harley, Ryan Anderson, Toney McCray, and Paul Velander, I'm talking to you) back in the offensive groove, and keep red-hot Cole Aldritch from giving KU too many 2nd- and 3rd-chance buckets.

Things could easily turn the Huskers way if the Jayhawks are looking past them to Monday's big showdown in Norman and next Sunday's rematch with Missouri.  Don't plan on it, though -- Bill Self's teams have never looked past Nebraska.

Colorado Buffaloes (9-15, 1-9) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (15-8, 5-5)

8:05 PM, Bob Devaney Sports Center, Lincoln, NE

TV: ESPNU (Webcast on ESPN360); Radio: Husker Sports Network

Despite suffering their first blowout loss of the season, the Huskers still have the opportunity to win their way into the NCAA Tournament.  Sure, it's going to be hard -- they'll probably need to go 5-1 in their remaining 6 games to get an at-large berth.  The focus may be on stealing wins at Kansas, Kansas State, or Baylor, but a loss to Colorado, Iowa State, or Texas A&M at home would be devastating to the Huskers' at-large hopes.

The more realistic step forward, a non-losing Big XII record, still requires the Huskers to win their remaining home games.  Tonight's the first, against a Colorado team that pushed Oklahoma and Kansas to the brink and Texas into overtime, and took the Huskers to the wire in Boulder two weeks ago.

At this point, the Huskers are playing for either an NCAA at-large bid or a 1- or 2-seed in the NIT (and thus at least 2 home games should they keep winning).  Every game is big -- even Colorado.

It's amazing what one little win over Texas can do for you.

On Friday, Nebraska was on NOBODY's NCAA radar.  By Saturday night, the wishful thinking had begun.  But is it that wishful?

The Huskers are 5-4 right now, and have 3 home games left.  All three home games are winnable -- Colorado and Iowa State are struggling mightily on the road, and Texas A&M is sitting at a woeful 3-6 in conference.  But that's just enough to get the Huskers to 8-8 (and a likely decent NIT seed).  The Huskers will have to get AT LEAST to 9-7 if they want to go dancing, and probably 10-6 to not sweat heavily on Selection Sunday.  Mark Shlabach on ESPN.com's Bubble Watch sums up Nebraska's resume nicely:

Nebraska [15-7 (5-4), RPI: 69, SOS: 61] The Cornhuskers' body of work looks similar to Kansas State's résumeacute;. Nebraska's best victories came against Missouri and Texas, and it has won three games in a row to get back into the bubble picture. But Nebraska still has much work to do. Like the Wildcats, the Cornhuskers have little to show from their nonconference schedule. They have a so-so victory over Creighton, but six of their 10 nonconference wins came against teams ranked No. 200 or lower in the RPI ratings. Worse, Nebraska lost to RPI No. 212 UMBC 66-64 on Dec. 23.

So, the Huskers are going to need to get some road wins or make a really deep run in the Big XII tournament to make the Dance.  I think one road game is certainly winnable -- Baylor.  The Bears are really struggling at 3-7 in league, and could be 6-9 or worse going into the final game against NU, which could give them very little to play for.

The trip to KU is hard to imagine the Huskers winning.  NU has won in Lawrence exactly once in my lifetime, in 1999.  If the Huskers can win this one, it would be huge for their tournament hopes.

The big question marks are this Saturday's game against Mizzou and two Saturdays from now at Kansas State.  Nebraska has already beat both these teams this season, and a sweep over either would be huge.  Can they do it?

• Nebraska has won 2 straight in Columbia, and Doc is 6-2 against Mike Anderson.  Missouri is coming off a huge, emotional, last-second win over their arch-rival, and may be a little hung-over.  For some reason, this matchup has favored NU lately.
  
• Kansas State will be coming off a mid-week trip to Mizzou, and remembering the 22-point shellacking in Lincoln earlier this year.  Nebraska has 2 wins in Manhattan this decade.

I think the Huskers could win either of these games, but I'm not sure they will.  That said, the fact that we can have this discussion with the smallest team in Division I two months after losing to Maryland-Baltimore County, is pretty impressive.  Of course, we could easily win BOTH those games, turn around and lose at home to Colorado and Iowa State.  Such is the plight of Husker hoops.

I'm going to stand by my 8-8 conference prediction for the time being, but I think that the first winning conference record in a decade is easily within reach.

Joe Ganz inspires, Fran Fraschilla praises Huskers

The Journal-Star has an interesting story today, about something Paul Velander heard Joe Ganz say, which he's brought to the Husker Basketball locker room: "Live within the team."

The same story also references Fran Fraschilla's Feb. 9 blog entry where he praises Doc Sadler's work at Nebraska.  Fran took a rare opportunity to watch a Husker practice, and he was full of kind words.  I won't say too much about it; take a chance to read it for yourself.

Remembering Jack Moore

I wasn't old enough to remember Jack Moore.  He played starting at NU the year I was born, coming to NU from Muncie, IN.  He was a small (5-9) guard who was selected as an all-Big 8 first-team selection, and won the award for the best player in the nation under 6 feet.  He is still the 6th-best free-throw shooter in NCAA history.

Sadly, Jack Moore died in a small plane crash on his way to North Platte on March 3, 1984, at the age of 24.  Nebraska has honored his memory by naming our annual team-MVP award for Moore.

Today, Jack Moore is being honored again at halftime of the game with Texas as part of Jack Moore Day.  It's appropriate that the undersized star is being honored by his currently undersized alma mater on a day when they play one of the nation's tallest teams.  Hopefully, we can do him proud.

The North Messes With Texas?

What's up with Texas all of a sudden?  They come to Lincoln after losing back-to-back home games against North-division foes Kansas State and Missouri.  Now, the 'Horns are sitting at 4-3, and can potentially find themselves in 6th place should they lose to NU today.

Nebraska has lost 7 straight to Texas, though the last two games have been decided by a total of 5 points.  Computer simulations are generous to the Huskers: Accuscore projects a coin flip with a slight NU edge; KenPom.com projects a coin flip with a slight Texas edge.

Around the League

Baylor was a tournament lock just a couple weeks ago, but now they are in nothing short of a free-fall.  Sure, they've lost 4 straight to the cream of the Big XII: Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri, and Kansas.  But there has to be some concern, sitting at 3-5.

Kansas State, on the other hand, has bounced back after looking to be completely in disarray out of the gate in conference play.  After an 0-4 start, the Wildcats are 4-4 and tied with Nebraska for fifth in the Big XII, and have wins over Missouri and Texas in that span.

Over at BasketballProspectus, there's an interesting look at each conference's tempo-free stats for conference play.  In the Big XII, there's only 5 teams who are averaging scoring more points per possession than they give up.  Four of them are expected: Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, and Texas.  The other? Nebraska!

When you think about it, NU hasn't been blown out in Big XII play, and that's reflected in these numbers.  It also means that NU should be able to win any game it plays.  As this team is learning how to win, the season may yet end with a surprise.

The struggling of the mid-level Big XII teams in conference play is having one more effect: the number of Big XII teams projected into the NCAA tournament is all over the place.  Joe Lunardi at ESPN.com only has 4, while Jerry Palm at CBSSports.com has 7!

Velander Academic All-District 7

Paul Velander was the only Big XII basketball player to earn CoSIDA/ESPN Academic All-District 7 honors.  Congratulations to Paul for all his hard work, both on and off the court.

Nebraska Cornhuskers (13-7, 3-4) at Colorado Buffaloes (9-11, 1-5)

Coors Event Center, Boulder, CO, 9:30 PM

TV: Fox Sports Midwest, ESPN FullCourt/ESPN360

Radio: Husker Sports Network

Opponent's Blog: The Ralphie Report (little Hoops coverage)

Tonight, the Huskers look to win back-to-back road games in conference for only the second time in ten years, playing at Big XII cellar-dweller Colorado.  The Buffs have played tough despite having only one conference win, and Nebraska has struggled in Boulder recently, dropping the last three trips.

The Huskers are currently tied with Kansas State and Texas A&M for fifth in the league, all at 3-4.  A win tonight gets NU to 4-4 in conference, with enough winnable games remaining to get to or even above .500 in conference.  Lose, and we're sitting at 3-5, with a struggle just to get to 7-9.

The game is late tonight, tipping off after 8:30 in Boulder (which makes it 9:30 for most Husker fans).  There's not a lot of other things to watch on TV, so join us here for the game.

Diagnosing NU's Late-Game struggles

It's a little hard to swallow that Nebraska is 2-4 in Big XII play when they could very easily be 6-0.  They've been ahead in every conference game, and been within 2 points within the final 2 minutes in all 4 losses, including against Top 5-Oklahoma.  So, why can't we put it away?

The answer lies at the heart of the biggest problem for the Huskers this year: Those once-per-game eight-minute FG droughts.

The problems were evident, but Arizona State demonstrated how to beat the Huskers: give them open threes and take away the inside lanes.  Since ASU held them to 44 points in December, more teams have worked to force Nebraska into being a perimeter shooting team and keeping them from driving the basket.

This is bad for Nebraska because outside of Paul Velander, the Huskers are a very inconsistent 3-point shooting team.  Nebraska is best playing its game when it makes baskets and can set up its full-court press to create transition baskets.  Unfortunately, with a team full of guards, the tendency is to take the open shot on the perimeter instead of driving to create high-percentage shots.

To win, the Huskers really need to focus on driving the basket, getting easier buckets, and setting up the pressure defense to create turnovers and transition bakets.  If they can really focus on that over the perimeter shooting, they may find those long scoring droughts becoming a lot shorter.

Ade Dagunduro on Fire

Since struggling to find his offense and stay out of foul trouble early on, Ade Dagunduro has caught fire since mid-December, with two 20-point games, including a 24-point performance Wednesday against KU.

Diaz's Redshirt a Good Thing Long-Term

I'm very supportive of Brian Diaz's decision to redshirt, despite the help he could bring to this year's squad.  The ability to run multiple big men, who will be in much better condition (and thus able to keep up with the speedy guards), can only be helpful down the line.

Around the Nation

Notre Dame was in the Top 10 a few weeks ago, and with their 5th straight loss, are in danger of falling right through the NCAA Tournament Bubble....The SEC lost two coaches last week, and is proving to be a giant cluster of mediocrity.  The league looks like it may struggle to get 4 teams in the NCAA Tournament, and none of those are likely to be much higher than a 4 or 5 seed unless they go on a major streak....Kansas may be the fourth-best team in the Big XII yet still win the regular season league crown...