FanPost

Out of the Valley of the Shadow of Death? Husker Recruiting Over the Past Five Years

I'm probably not alone in feeling mixed emotions about our 2017 recruiting class. On the glass-half-full side of the ledger, we landed our first top 25 (23rd, to be exact) recruiting class since 2013 (22nd). On the glass-half-empty side of things, we lost seemingly every head-to-head battle for blue-chip recruits in an endless string of disappointments, save the silver lining of Tyjon Lindsey.

But, I think it's also reasonable to view the constant losses in 2017 as a positive. At least we're competing with top 10 programs for coveted recruits, right?

That thought got me wondering about whether, instead of stars, our classes are changing with respect to the number of power five offers our recruits have. Independent of assessments by the recruiting services, it would seem that the number of schools that are going after our commits could tell us something. So, I looked at our last five classes and counted up the number of power 5 offers (including from Nebraska) for each recruit in the 2013-2017 classes, and calculated averages for each class:

2013: 7.6 (2 recruits with no other power 5 offers)

2014: 5.9 (7 recruits with no other power 5 offers)

2015: 6.0 (2 recruits with no other power 5 offers)

2016: 7.7 (2 recruits with no other power 5 offers)

2017: 11.3 (2 recruits with no other power 5 offers)

By this measure, it would seem that this staff is increasingly going big or going home with respect to recruiting. Whatever you think of Riley as a coach, I think it would be hard to argue that that is not a good thing.

Not surprisingly, using this measure, the overwhelming number of our top recruits in the last five years are in the 2016 and 2017 classes (Player / Class / Power 5 Offers):

1. P. Newell / 2014 / 31

2. T. Lindsey / 2017 / 24

3. A. Roberts / 2017 / 23

4. G. Thomas / 2017 / 22

4. D. Daniels / 2017 / 22

6. K. Johnson Jr. / 2017 / 21

7. M. Sichterman / 2017 / 17

7. M. Farniok / 2016 / 17

9. T. Butler / 2016 / 16

9. D. Ozigbo / 2015 / 16

11. L. Jackson / 2016 / 15

11. Q. Alexander / 2016 / 15

11. M. Wilbon / 2014 / 15

14. D. Watts / 2017 / 14

14. C. Miller / 2016 / 14

A few observations. First, our 2014 class was, by any measure, terrible. Despite the fact that it included Peyton Newell and his 31 P5 offers, it nevertheless averaged just 5.9 P5 offers per recruit and included 7 commits whose only P5 offer was Nebraska. Clearly, Pelini's shaky job status was negatively affecting the 2014 class. Also, 2014 and 2015 represent a talent trough in recruiting, which is concerning since they are now upper-classmen on our roster.

And qualitatively, this measure masks the "quality" of the P5 offers that our commits have received. A P5 offer sheet that includes Nebraska, Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama and USC is clearly better than one that includes Nebraska, Iowa State, Wake Forest, Boston College, and Iowa. The offer sheets of our recent classes include more of the former, and fewer of the latter.

Along the same lines, number of P5 offers is not necessarily indicative of the quality of the offers. Arguably the best player on our roster, Stanley Morgan Jr., did not make the top 15 but nevertheless has one of the most impressive offer sheets of players on our roster. He had 11 P5 offers: Nebraska, Clemson, Florida, Georgia, Michigan St., Mississippi St., Ohio State, Ole Miss, Tennessee, UCLA, and Utah.

Ultimately, to the extent that this metric means anything at all, it would suggest that our roster is being significantly upgraded to a greater degree than stars and class rankings would suggest. And as a Husker fan, I really, really, hope that is true.

This FanPost created by a registered user of Corn Nation.