So, thanks to the subjection of redvalley, I gave myself a little project. As we know, and if you don't, then where have you been? But Nebraska wins 9 to 10 games every season, that's what we do in Nebraska, we eat steaks with corn and win 9 to 10 games a season. Now this is an actual accomplishment, but just how much of an accomplishment is it? The only two schools to win 9 or more games a season for the past six seasons are, Oregon and Bama. So we are in elite company. Does that mean, we are elite too?
Now, I ain't no Nate Silver, but I decide to add up the number of wins of every FBS team Nebraska has beaten over the last six years, and see who are we beating. The avg. winning percentage of FBS teams Nebraska has beaten over the last six years is, .452, While the average winning percentage of FBS teams that have beaten Nebraska over the last six is, .728. Now, now, my fellow Bo bashers, settle down, for there is a flaw in my methodology. You see, while going through Oregon's records over the last six years, I noticed a pattern, Oregon would play some truly god awful teams. I believe the 09 season, the state of Washington needed to be burnt down for producing such terrible teams. Now, I still crunched the numbers, but saw the flaw. You can beat two teams with 8 or 9 wins in the season, but you play one team that has loss 9 games that season, and their collective winning percentage takes a major hit. So, what to do? How can we compare, Oregon, Bama and Nebraska?
Welp, I figured, I look at how many teams with a winning percentage of .500 or above, Nebraska, Oregon and Bama have beaten over the last six years. I need an abbreviation for, "over the last six years", lets use, "OLSY", yeah, sounds great, and fuck it. Anyways, enough rambling, lets get to the numbers.
- OLSY the avg. winning percentage of teams Oregon has beaten is .477
- OLSY the avg. winning percentage of teams Bama has beaten is .531
- Nebraska, again is .452.
So, while we are last amongst those schools, is not that bad. So, what is the OLSY avg. winning percentage for teams that have beaten either, Bama or Oregon? To the numbers!
- OLSY avg. winning percentage for teams that have beaten Oregon is, .837
- OLSY avg. winning percentage for teams that have beaten Bama is, .877
- Nebraska, again is, .728
There is a bit of a gap there. What that shows me is, It takes really good teams to beat, either Bama or Oregon, and it takes fairly good teams to beat Nebraska. This numbers, to me are far more telling. While doing my research, add to the fact, that neither Bama or Oregon has loss to a team that finished the season with a winning percentage under .500, like Nebraska has. In fact, neither Oregon or Bama have loss to a team with less than 8 wins in a season. Nebraska has loss to a team with only 7 wins.
But here comes the most important part of this test. I counted how many FBS teams with a winning percentage of .500 or above have Nebraska, Oregon and Bama beaten in OLSY. To the numbers!
- Oregon has beaten a total of 31 and loss 12. Giving them a .720 winning percentage against, FBS teams with .500 or higher winning percentage in OLSY.
- Bama has beaten a total of 39 and loss 9. Giving them a .812 winning percentage against, FBS teams with a .500 or higher winning percentage in OLSY.
- Nebraska hast beaten a total 28 and loss 24 (will include Tejas for math's sake). Giving them a .538 winning percentage against, FBS teams with a .500 or higher winning percentage in OLSY. Basically, whenever Nebraska plays a good team, is a coin flip whether they will win or lose.
So, what does that tell me? What I always known, we are a good team, not elite, nowhere close. But, a good team, still. Six years in, we haven't cracked that ceiling. Will we? I hope so, but I doubt it.