FanPost

Week 9 Huskers & B1G Stats!

Well, there might not have been any Husker games this week but boy did we get some lively action and slew of upsets throughout the college football world and even in the B1G.

Everybody's Legends darling NW is now effectively out of the race and ironically more dangerous than ever, especially for NU. Yeah, I'm calling us NU because until they beat us, we get the name back. Iowa held stronger than we thought, Michigan looked like they were in the SEC with the way they were scoring, and giving up points. (Yeah, SEC elitists, outside of 'Bama, get over yourselves. It's not defense if the other team's don't try to score.) Oh yeah, and MSU did what I predicted and struggled on offense, failing to cover a ridiculous 27 point number and went back to having doubters of the offensive resurgence again.

THE STATS THAT MATTER:

That brings us to this week's stats, starting with, the FEI.

FEI SOS FEI Efficiency
Rating Team Result Prev Future Off Def ST
90 Wyoming 37-34 117 80 44 107 116
124 So. Miss 56-13 79 86 117 83 119
17 UCLA 21-41 8 4 41 8 16
- SD State - - - -
69 Illinois 39-19 85 60 28 101 30
109 at Purdue 44-7 60 68 110 81 101
77 at Minnesota - 88 57 94 70 3
65 NW - 74 67 63 49 76
30 at Michigan - 95 49 35 17 88
34 Michigan St - 80 81 80 4 72
51 at Penn State - 76 43 66 29 82
41 Iowa - 72 73 46 77 38
52 NEBRASKA - 99 58 52 30 29
45 Indiana - 32 44 2 117 61
26 Wisconsin - 47 61 24 23 65
22 Ohio State - 102 75 11 45 4


I added the SOS component this week showing what schedule teams have already played and what the future schedule holds. You can tell real quick that Nebraska has faced a pretty easy slate thus far but aside from Michigan State, no one has a real advantage from here on out in schedule either, at least in division. We dropped from 40 to 52 this week likely due to poor performances by UCLA, Wyoming, etc.

And now, the S&P.

F/+ S&P+ Offense Defense
Team Result # # Overall PE Rush Pass PS Overall PE Rush Pass PS
Wyoming 37-34 92 92 80 89 84 103 77 93 91 75 117 59
So. Miss 56-13 117 116 121 120 115 112 119 96 75 40 109 91
UCLA 21-41 18 24 49 70 103 37 31 14 11 37 8 3
SD State - - - - - - - - - - -
Illinois 39-19 58 57 25 27 40 28 53 95 96 80 86 74
at Purdue 44-7 105 106 115 105 83 88 70 72 55 41 46 60
at Minnesota - 70 86 86 97 86 99 107 78 68 79 56 82
NW - 55 48 50 49 37 58 100 36 50 27 82 80
at Michigan - 29 40 23 23 29 19 23 67 73 67 73 100
Michigan St - 30 19 92 92 74 101 51 4 1 4 5 7
at Penn State - 43 35 98 110 113 100 112 10 4 1 22 6
Iowa - 48 37 59 51 50 34 40 23 24 9 55 23
NEBRASKA - 38 54 24 28 26 39 15 85 105 112 93 32
Indiana - 40 29 8 8 7 9 8 87 97 78 83 83
Wisconsin - 14 8 18 12 9 44 42 12 16 15 25 2
Ohio State - 11 11 7 10 3 22 13 43 43 18 71 53
* PE = Play Efficiency; PS = Passing Situations
* F/+ combines S&P & FEI ratings. (Many Advanced Stats Guru's Like To Use This As Overall)


UCLA fell big and that, in effect, hurt the Huskers as it was their best opponent. Couple that with the fact that Wyoming took a turn for the worse and it isn't hard to see why the NU team took a step back. Meanwhile, this week's opponent, the Golden Gophers, took a small step forward with their victory over NW.

And now, for fun, the Prediction Machine.

Prediction Machine
Team Result Rank OFF DEF O PASS O RUSH D PASS D RUSH
Wyoming 37-34 100 65 120 80 82 105 119
So. Miss 56-13 113 116 95 119 116 110 76
UCLA 21-41 27 12 56 20 34 22 23
SD State - - - - - - - -
Illinois 39-19 81 66 75 53 66 101 80
at Purdue 44-7 90 118 58 107 99 45 69
at Minnesota - 73 105 32 91 49 54 62
NW - 46 55 50 54 37 31 61
at Michigan - 28 42 13 15 44 34 18
Michigan St - 19 71 2 83 68 3 2
at Penn State - 43 47 19 46 94 26 26
Iowa - 51 89 14 67 80 50 11
NEBRASKA - 38 26 57 34 21 18 96
Indiana - 41 8 90 18 31 67 73
Wisconsin - 13 30 16 37 4 30 16
Ohio State - 7 22 17 31 5 27 10


This thing loves Michigan much more than a lot of people. In fact, after being torched by Indiana, they still have the 13th ranked defense. What say you?

B1G Bowl Predictions:

Courtesy of BTN's Tom Dienhart, here is where the B1G currently sits.

Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs Stanford - No Title Game for OSU? We will see. I still say if they run the table, there will be media fold pulling heavy to get old Urban in the game. But obviously they have to run the table.

Orange Bowl: Wisconsin vs Florida State - This would be interesting. Wisconsin has to win out and hope for an additional Husker loss (not the B1G title game) for this to happen though.

Capital One Bowl: Michigan State vs Auburn - Defense vs Offense in this one. Something will have to give.

Outback Bowl: Nebraska vs LSU - Outback officials have to be drooling for this possibility.

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Michigan vs Texas Texas - Good Lord, what will the Over/Under be?

Gator Bowl: Northwestern vs Georgia - NW better do some winning to even get bowl eligible. I think they will though, especially when they get healthy. With all expectations gone, they are back to being the dangerous team no one thinks about.

Texas Bowl: Indiana vs TCU - Hoosiers can score, and so will whoever they play.

Heart of Dallas Bowl: Iowa vs North Texas - Wow, what an attractive game this is.

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl: Minnesota vs Ball State - Good for the Golden Gophers.

B1G Standings

Legends

  1. Michigan State 3-0 (@Ill, Mich, @NU, @NW, Minn)
  2. Nebraska 2-0
  3. Michigan 2-1 (@MSU, NU, @NW, @Iowa, OSU)
  4. Iowa 1-2 (NW, WISC, @PUR, Mich, @NU)
  5. Minnesota 1-2 (NU, @IND, PSU, WISC, @MSU)
  6. Northwestern 0-3 (@Iowa, @NU, Mich, MSU, @Ill)

Leaders

  1. Ohio State 3-0
  2. Wisconsin 3-1
  3. Penn State 1-1
  4. Indiana 1-2
  5. Illinois 0-2
  6. Purdue 0-3

At THIS POINT in the season, I'd predict:

I still want to see what we will look like with Taylor back in the lineup. There isn't a team left we can't beat and aside from Minnesota, there isn't a team that isn't capable of beating us left on the slate. IF we are an offense where Taylor is pass first and reluctant to run in effort to prove to everyone he is a pass first QB, then I see us losing to Michigan and likely one other, say a healthy NW team. I'm not sure the other one, but someone because IF we are back into passing the ball all over with Taylor, fast break offense, it won't help the team or the defense and we will lose a game we shouldn't. There for, at this point, until I see a change in our play calling on offense and game planning, I'm still sticking to 3 regular season losses. Whether that's good enough for a division title remains to be seen. Now, if Taylor is back to running the ball and doing it in a tough fashion, then all bets are off and we are looking at 1 or 2 losses at season's end. If you go purely off F+ or S&P base numbers, they'd have us losing 2 games or 4 more respectively.

This Week's B1G Games:

Last week we went 4-1 straight up and 3-2 ATS though the NW game was a bit of a strange happening since those injuries weren't expected to be sitting out. Still, that puts us at 8-1 and 6-3 ATS on the season. So, now to this week's slate of games:

Overall NW's Ball Iowa's Ball
NW Iowa NW Off Iowa Def Iowa Off NW Def
F/+ Rank 55 48
S&P+ Rank 48 37 50 23 59 36
Rushing 37 9 50 27
Passing 58 55 34 82
Std. Downs 39 32 54 39
Pass. Downs 100 23 40 80
Play Eff 49 24 51 50
Drive Eff 52 20 65 33


Northwestern at Iowa (-4) - Talk about must win for NW. Forget the division, that thing is over. But if they want a bowl game, they have to win 2 more games and this might be one of the more winnable games on the schedule. For Iowa, you could make the same case for them too. Sure, they still get cup cake Purdue but the other 4 teams on the schedule won't be easy so they would be well served to win this game for bowl hopes to be secure. Line opened at 3 for Iowa. For Iowa, they have a simple, but effective plan. Stop the run and put teams in obvious passing situations where they have shown effectiveness. That is also where NW is horrible, when they are forced to throw. Iowa also passes the ball well and NW has shown very little ability to stop it, even if they know it is coming. It would be nicer to know who all is playing for NW. Personally, I'd stay away from it but if push came to shove, I'd take Iowa to cover with very little confidence in it.

Overall MSU's Ball Ill's Ball
MSU Ill MSU OFF ILL DEF ILL OFF MSU DEF
F/+ Rank 30 58
S&P+ Rank 19 57 92 95 25 4
Rushing 74 80 40 4
Passing 101 86 28 5
Std. Downs 114 96 17 3
Pass. Downs 51 74 53 7
Play Eff 92 96 27 1
Drive Eff 92 89 25 12


Michigan State (-10.5) at Illinois - Michigan State is the clear favorite and will be a tough out for any team they play, just because of their defense. Their defense is good enough to keep them in every single game from here on out. Problem with Sparty is their offense is bad enough to keep every single team they play in the game meaning close, gut wrenching games for most of the year. Game opened at 13 for MSU and has steadily climbed for Illinois and you can see why. Illinois can win this game. Their defense is garbage, but the few things they do the best are what MSU actually is decent at (passing situations). Meanwhile, if the Illinois QB can complete some passes, who knows. I still can't pick Illinois to win a conference game until, you know, they actually do, but I will take them to cover.

Overall PSU's Ball OSU's Ball
PSU OSU PSU OFF OSU DEF OSU OFF PSU DEF
F/+ Rank 43 11
S&P+ Rank 35 11 98 43 7 10
Rushing 113 18 3 1
Passing 100 71 22 22
Std. Downs 111 46 13 12
Pass. Downs 112 53 13 6
Play Eff 110 43 10 4
Drive Eff 85 46 4 11


Penn State at Ohio State (-14.5) - Until Michigan rolls around, this might be the last team to give OSU a scare? Doubtful but from a national perspective, it will be their last chance, until Michigan, to nail down a marquee name win and it would help if they start doing things with some style points. No real line movement although a brief jump did go to OSU before coming back. OSU is at home, therefor you have to side with them and while their defense is trending backwards, I still don't see enough offensive punch for PSU to contend. Further, was the Michigan win the big game for PSU? Who knows, but it is an intriguing match-up as I see PSU as very similar to Iowa but in the end, I think too much OSU. I'll wait until I get them at 14 if I can but my pick is OSU.

Overall NU's Ball MINN's Ball
NU Minn NU OFF Minn DEF Minn OFF NU DEF
F/+ Rank 38 70
S&P+ Rank 54 86 24 78 86 85
Rushing 26 79 86 112
Passing 39 56 99 93
Std. Downs 52 72 84 112
Pass. Downs 15 82 107 32
Play Eff 28 68 97 105
Drive Eff 24 83 72 65


Nebraska (10.5) at Minnesota - Minnesota is now in prime position to make a run at a bowl game and need just one more win to do so. However, with the slate they have left, that won't be a given. They beat NW so they should have some confidence even if it was a beat up Wildcat team. Line started at just 8.5 and quickly jumped. Minnesota's defense showed up and performed much better than a week ago than expected but that was without going up against the entire offense. This Husker offense will be better and equipped with a mobile QB, something NW did not have. The key is early downs but even if Minnesota gets some early down stops and puts the Huskers behind the sticks, odds are they can convert as they have been good in those situations and Minnesota has not on defense. Then, offensively, Minnesota will be one of the worse offenses the Huskers have faced. Further, the biggest weakness the Gophers have is passing in obvious situations and that is something Huskers defense actually excels in. For the defense, stuff that run early and force them to throw. It should be a recipe for success. Huskers 42, Minnesota 17.

A Rooting Interest!

Well obviously we need a Husker win. Pick who ever you'd like in OSU/PSU, it really doesn't have an effect on us much although an OSU win does help the conference as a whole I guess. Obviously be pulling for Illinois. It'd be an upset for sure but don't think it can't happen. MSU's defense can keep them in any game and their offense can keep their opponent in any game. Basically, exactly opposite of us. Then you have Iowa versus NW. You can really look at this two ways. Pull for NW to add some hype to the NW game the next week and make sure our players don't sleep walk into that game... AGAIN! Or, pull for Iowa to basically choke the last bit of life out of NW for the season which then puts them in complete panic mode for the rest of the year. Either way you look at it, it could backfire so I guess their is no real interest that we can pull for this week other than Illinois taking down Sparty.

Oh yeah, watching formed de-commit Josh Freeman was fun the other night. Reminded of when the Cats came to Lincoln.

This FanPost created by a registered user of Corn Nation.

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