Projected Big Ten Baseball Tournament Seeding

Below are the current standings in baseball as we enter the last weekend of the regular season. Given the logjam below Purdue, the weekend could result in a fair amount of drama.

Big Ten

Overall

Team

Record

Pct.

Record

Pct.

1. Purdue

16-5

.762

40-10

.800

2. Penn State

13-8

.619

27-24

.529

Indiana

13-8

.619

27-26

.509

4. Michigan State

12-9

.571

34-17

.667

Nebraska

12-9

.571

32-20

.615

6. Ohio State

11-10

.524

31-22

.585

7. Minnesota

10-11

.476

28-25

.528

8. Illinois

9-12

.429

26-24

.520

9. Iowa

8-13

.381

21-26

.447

10. Michigan

7-14

.333

21-32

.396

11. Northwestern

6-18

.250

17-34

.333

What I'm trying to do here is predict the results for the weekend just to project as to where everyone might end up with regards to seedings and who makes the Big Ten tournament.

Purdue at Iowa - Purdue sweep 3-0

Iowa might pull out a game here, but it's doubtful that Purdue comes into the weekend flat.

Penn State at Michigan State - Michigan State wins series 2-1

This is a big series for Michigan State in two ways - the seeding for the Big Ten tourney and a chance to further their cause in being selected as an at-large bid for the NCAA tourney. Sparty comes into the weekend with a RPI of 46.

That's a lot of motivation for the Spartans, plus they're at home.

Minnesota at Illinois - Illinois wins series 2-1

This one is tough. Minnesota is bad on the road, but Illinois has just been bad lately. Add to that they've lost six of their last seven, as opposed to Minnesota who's only lose five of their last seven.

Both teams should be motivated as the loser of this series will be out of the Big Ten tournament. I'm picking Minnesota on the road to lose.

Michigan at Nebraska - Nebraska wins series 2-1

Nebraska = not that good on the road. Michigan = not good. The word "that" wins over the lack of the word "that".

BTW, Nebraska's RPI entering the season is 89. The only realistic way for the Huskers to make the NCAA tourney is to win the conference tournament to get an automatic qualification.

Ohio State at Indiana - Indiana wins series 2-1

I'm taking the Hoosier's hot hand over the Buckeyes inability to win on the road.

Ohio State is third in RPI behind Purdue and Michigan State at 62. Given the Big Ten's national reputation (which is lousy), they're in the same boat as Nebraska. First the Buckeyes have to win this weekend's series and make the tourney.

Projected Final Standings

Team

Record

1. Purdue

19-5

2. Indiana

15-9

3. Nebraska

14-10

Michigan State

Penn State

14-10

14-10

5. Ohio State

12-12

6. Ohio State

12-12

7. Minnesota

11-13

8. Illinois

11-13

9. Iowa

8-16

10. Michigan

8-16

11. Northwestern

6-18

If the last series turn out this way, the top two seeds are obvious. Purdue and Indiana will earn a bye as the #1 and #2 seeds during the first round of the Big Ten tournament.

Nebraska, Michigan State and Penn State would be seeded based on the Big Ten's tie-breaking procedure, which gets a little dicey since Nebraska didn't play either Michigan State or Penn State this season, while those two teams play against each other this weekend.

Since there would be three teams tied and they haven't played, seeding would be determined as follows:

the best winning percentage against all teams ending the season (tied or not) in positions 1-2-3-4-5-6 in the final conference standings will determine the highest seed with the other teams following in order based on highest to lowest winning percentage.

Holy crap. That's a whole bunch of projecting.

I think we'll just wait and see what the next few days bring. Why'd I do this again?

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