Know Thy Enemy: Northwestern vs Nebraska - They're Smart But Can't Run Fast
by Jon Johnston on Nov 4, 2011 10:00 AM CDT
in 2011 Nebraska Huskers Football
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This week, the Northwestern Wildcats. We're joined by Rodger Sherman from the SB Nation Northwestern site Sippin' on Purple in our quest to learn more about that team from Evanston, Illinois.
I find myself surprised at how poorly the Wildcats are doing this year. Coming in, I thought they might have one of the better teams in the conference this year... what was I thinking?
Northwestern has had a tough year. The win last week against Indiana went very well for the Wildcats. Do you see this game as Northwestern making progress or was it just a good day against a poor team?
The thing about Northwestern's season is that despite losing five straight games - when was the last time y'all did that? - none of them were blowouts. NU was leading undefeated Illinois by 18, beating undefeated Michigan at the half, ran off 17 straight points to have it at 17-17 against Iowa before losing momentum, and was within 10 of Penn State the whole game. A team that plays four Big Ten teams - three of them ranked - tight isn't making progress by running locomotive on Indiana. Indiana sucks quite violently and it wasn't surprising to see NU put up 59 before taking their feet off the gas.
Will Pat Fitzgerald coach at NW until he retires? Is there any point at which he'll be asked to leave other than if he violates the law?
Nobody loves any inanimate object as much as Pat Fitzgerald loves NW NU, except maybe Brick towards lamp. Northwestern was the only major school to give him a look as a player, he ended up winning multiple defensive player of the year awards in back-to-back years, and his devotion to the school has attained nearly creepy levels.
While many coaches assert how passionate they are about the school, Fitz lives it, and it's scary to watch. NU reciprocates, because he's like the best thing ever. He might leave the school by accident Saturday when his intensity and Bo Pelini's intensity simultaneously converge in the post-game handshake, causing an enormous wormhole to suck in most of the Lincoln metropolitan area. ("Metropolitan area" used generously.)
In previewing the Wildcats this season, it appeared that they were poised to have a pretty good season. Obviously that hasn't happened. What's up with that?
Like I said, the games haven't been bad. The results just haven't showed up. More to the point though, Northwestern's defense is worse than the majority of lethal diseases, including the croup. The offense has been able to put up points, but the secondary has made Nathan Scheelhaase look like he's good at throwing things to people with his arms.
Offense and defense - who are the playmakers?
Offense: Dan Persa is unrealistically good at quarterback - he's completing 75.5 percent of his passes, and that's without playing any non-conference games - and Kain Colter has been dynamic as a spell QB as well as a surprisingly good wide receiver/running back to throw you punks off. Jeremy Ebert and Drake Dunsmore are the primary targets, and try tackling Drake Dunsmore and you shall fail.
Defense: n/a
Prediction?
Nebraska, 49, Northwestern, 34. We'll scare you about being able to score points against a phenomenal defense, but hah stopping you not so much.
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My prediction
Nebraska 48 Northwestern 10
54mph wind gusts? I don’t see much of a passing game, from either side, happening.
There's a 2% chance of Thunderstorms
Don’t think I’ve ever seen that before…why even bother telling us?
Look me up on youtube sometime...if you're really bored.
The question is
when you predict something with a 2% chance, and it actually happens, are you still wrong?
Weathermen are never wrong - the data was simply inconclusive.
A Cornhusker through feast or famine. Get up, dust yourself off and run the ball. That's the Nebraska way.
by Salt Creek and Stadium on Nov 4, 2011 11:02 AM CDT up reply actions
This is exactly why you don't see 100% or 0% forecasts very often.
In the deed, the glory.
Corn Nation!
Follow @Aaron_Musfeldt
by Aaron Musfeldt on Nov 4, 2011 11:05 AM CDT up reply actions
Actually those percents are based on the forecasted conditions.
So when you hear 20% chance of rain, what they mean is that in either 20 out of 100 or 200 out of 1000 cases when conditions matched those as forecasted, the resulting weather was rain.
The very rare 0% or 100% is because we’ve seen snow in July.
A Cornhusker through feast or famine. Get up, dust yourself off and run the ball. That's the Nebraska way.
by Salt Creek and Stadium on Nov 4, 2011 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions
There does seem to be
this odd consistency by Northwestern fans this week about 2 things:
1) They will score a bunch of points on the road in bad weather against a surging Blackshirts defense
2) They will still lose the game
There are all sorts of things wrong with #1, not the least of which is a statue at QB and a mostly one-dimensional offense.
They do
have a point that their O has scored more than the opposing D they are facing every game of the B10 this year. (Warning: statistics unverified – rumor by posters on NW board)
I still think 42 – 21 ’Skers is the way it goes.
Persa, if healthy, isn't a statue at QB though.
They’re probably going to challenge us like Fresno State, an underdog who if not for some momentum shift, would’ve beaten us at home early in the season.
The difference will be that our team has faced Fresno State, Washington and Ohio State, all who made our defense look silly and yet we still won. And this team knows by now that any drop in focus or attention and the other Big Ten teams will take advantage of that.
A Cornhusker through feast or famine. Get up, dust yourself off and run the ball. That's the Nebraska way.
by Salt Creek and Stadium on Nov 4, 2011 11:06 AM CDT up reply actions
Perhaps I view a QB
as a statue in relative terms this season, compared to Russell Wilson and Braxton Miller.
Ah, well, in that case, Persa is more like one of those living statues.
Still slow, but he’s no Kirk Cousins.
A Cornhusker through feast or famine. Get up, dust yourself off and run the ball. That's the Nebraska way.
by Salt Creek and Stadium on Nov 4, 2011 11:42 AM CDT up reply actions
If the weather is as bad as forecasted
I think it definitely helps our cause. Northwestern doesn’t have much of a running game Persa has ridiculous accuracy, but with 54mph gusts not even Andrew Suck for Luck would throw the ball that well. NW’s rushing offense and our run D are both pretty average, but if we don’t have to worry about them throwing the ball all that much you’d think it would give the advantage to our D.
They know we’ll be running the ball right at them anyways, the question is whether or not they can stop us and it doesn’t look like they can.
Woe be to special teams.
Look me up on youtube sometime...if you're really bored.
So do we see Rex out to field punts all day?
You now when Bo is worried about Ameer when he sends Rex out to wave his hand up in the air to field a punt.
In the deed, the glory.
Corn Nation!
Follow @Aaron_Musfeldt
by Aaron Musfeldt on Nov 4, 2011 11:06 AM CDT up reply actions
That would be my pick.
No need to mess around on ST. Get the ball and give it to the running backs.
A Cornhusker through feast or famine. Get up, dust yourself off and run the ball. That's the Nebraska way.
by Salt Creek and Stadium on Nov 4, 2011 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions
My thoughts
-First, I think the Huskers win and cover the spread
-Second, I think the first half is tight, but NW is held to under 10 in the second half (it’s been a pattern for both our defense and their offense that fewer points will be scored after halftime).
-Third, the wind is big for Nebraska. 50+ gusts should pretty much eliminate Northwestern’s vertical threat and I think our defense is good enough to shut down the short stuff if they know that’s all that’s coming.
-Fourth, we find out that our defensive improvement is real.
-Finally, I like Nebraska in this one, 45-20.
"My hardest job is to convince the people of Nebraska that 10-1 is not a losing season." - Tom Osborne
-Fourth, we find out that our defensive improvement is real.
This is the key to the game and the season. Since halftime of the OSU game the D has put together 10 quarters of excellent football. If this is the new reality and not an apparition then I feel very positive about that B1G Championship game.
Insert witty retort here.
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