Nebraska Football: Odds and Expected Season Record

Not relative to the story - but everything looks better with photos!

This article was actually written by Steve R, a member of Mike Nolan's Husker email list. Nolan's email list celebrated its 20th birthday this month, making it the longest running Husker-based internet communication medium - the fact that it's still active is pretty amazing and a testament to Mike Nolan's work. 

The idea is determining Nebraska's odds of winning the remaining games on the schedule, which therefore leads to the expected season record. 

Bottom line - we'd better play damned good football the rest of the way out. 

Here's how Massey's odds have changed since I first looked at them before the Wisconsin game:

Week Iowa Mich PSU NW MSU UMN OSU UW
5 0.78 0.5 0.59 0.96 0.8 0.95 0.8 0.24
6 0.73 0.37 0.6 0.93 0.67 0.96 0.78  
7 0.83 0.31 0.49 0.93 0.67 0.97  

 

The odds of winning @Michigan have fallen dramatically, from 50% to less than 1/3. The odds of beating Michigan State have fallen from 4/5 to 2/3. The game at @Penn State has fallen from nearly 3/5 to less than 1/2. The odds of beating Iowa went down then up. The odds on Minnesota and Northwestern have remained about the same.

In the two games played in that time, Nebraska did not go undefeated (about 19% chance), avoided losing both (about 16% chance), and split (about 65% chance).

Here are the odds on records in the final 6 games:

0-6:  0.00%

1-5:  0.22%

2-4:  3.44%

3-3: 18.69%

4-2: 39.01%

5-1: 31.02%

6-0:  7.62%

For those worried about bowl eligibility, the odds appear to be better than 99.99%.  The expected record in the final 6 games is 4.2-1.8, for an overall record of 9.2-2.8.

As a point of comparison, Nebraska's expected conference record is 5.2-2.8, Michigan's expected conference record is 6.4-1.6, and Michigan State's is 5.33-2.67.  

Nebraska definitely is not the favorite to win the division, but one of those two teams will lose next week while Nebraska is idle.  Then, Nebraska likely gets a win at Minnesota while Michigan State likely gets beat by Wisconsin (80%, even at home) while Michigan has a bye week. Michigan doesn't have to play Wisconsin and Nebraska get's Michigan State at home, so I'll be rooting for MSU against Michigan next week.

Retrospectively, before Wisconsin:

0-8:  0.00%

1-7:  0.02%

2-6:  0.32%

3-5:  2.77%

4-4: 12.29%

5-3: 28.72%

6-2: 34.17%

7-1: 18.50%

8-0:  3.22%

Expected: 5.62-2.38 (9.62-2.38)

and before Ohio State:

0-7:  0.00%

1-6:  0.07%

2-5:  1.03%

3-4:  6.76%

4-3: 21.69%

5-2: 35.43%

6-1: 27.45%

7-0:  7.56%

Expected: 5.04-1.96 (9.04-2.96)

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Corn Nation

You must be a member of Corn Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Corn Nation. You should read them.

Join Corn Nation

You must be a member of Corn Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Corn Nation. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker