Opponent Watch: Revisiting Nebraska's Most Dangerous Game

by Jon Johnston on Sep 29, 2010 8:29 AM CDT in Nebraska Husker Football

Before the season started, we ran a poll asking fans which game they'd pick as Nebraska's "Most Dangerous Game". The Texas A&M game ended up winning the poll, actually by a rather large margin, followed by Texas, and then Washington.

Now that a third of the regular season has passed, it's time for a reassessment.

Kansas State

Daniel Thomas has been the stud running back everyone expected, ranked third nationally in yards per game despite being contained by Central Florida. The Golden Knights held Thomas to only 76 yards on 22 carries, keying on him the entire game. Unfortunately, keying on Thomas cost UCF the game as Carson Coffman was able to scramble into the end zone for the go-ahead touchdown as the Knights went after Thomas instead.

Kansas State is 4-0 and off to their best start since 2003. They haven't looked particularly impressive, but they're winning by playing gritty defense and playing ball possession on offense.

Texas

It's obvious after last weekend's loss to UCLA that the Longhorns have issues. Their offense could be the most anemic of the Mack Brown era. Texas coughed up four fumbles and mustered only 85 yards on the ground against a Bruin defense that's ranked 94th nationally against the run, giving up 313 yards in their loss to Kansas State.

UCLA completed only five passes for 27 yards, and they possessed the ball for nearly 11 minutes more than Texas. The Longhorns defense was supposed to be the strength of this team, yet there they were, giving up a 38-yard run to knee brace-wearing UCLA quarterback Kevin Prince.

The Longhorns face Oklahoma in the Red River Shootout this weekend. At this point, it's hard to imagine them pulling out a win against the Sooners, but they are still Texas and they have more athletes than nearly anyone else in the country. It's also hard to imagine Texas losing three games in a row - losing to Oklahoma will make them very dangerous. They won't lie down and die, they'll come to Lincoln anxious to break a losing streak.

Pretty much sums it up for Texas so far this season.

Oklahoma State

The Cowboys don't have a problem on offense, scoring 65, 41, and 65 points against Washington State, Troy, and Tulsa in their first three games of the season (note that these teams are ranked 117, 109, and 113 in total defense, respectively). Okie State is first in total offense, at 596 yards per game and second to Oregon in scoring offense.

Quarterback Brandon Weeden is third nationally in passing yardage per game at 325 yards per game. Receiver Justin Blackmon is first nationally in receiving yards per game at 143.7.

Lest you think the Cowboys are all about passing, running back Kendall Hunter is ranked second nationally in rushing yards per game with 157.67. He's averaging 7.88 yards per carry and has already scored six touchdowns.

We're going to learn a lot more about Oklahoma State when they meet Texas A&M this Thursday on ESPN. We'll have an open thread for that one.

Missouri

Husker fans had fun with Missouri a couple of weeks ago when they had to pull out a last minute win against San Diego State. This past weekend, the Tigers had an impressive 51-13 win over Miami of Ohio, moving them to 4-0 before the start of Big 12 play against Colorado on October 9th.

Since Derrick Washington was released from the team, the Tigers have gone with the "by committee" approach, probably trying to find the guy who'll rise to the top before conference play with DeVion Moore and Kendial Lawrence have the majority of carries. Receiver T.J. Moe has already had two 100-yard games this season, and Michael Egnew ripped off 145 yards against San Diego State.

What to think of Missouri?

Iowa State

The Cyclones are 2-2, posting wins over Northern Illinois and Northern Iowa with losses against Kansas State and Iowa. To be blunt, Iowa State doesn't pose much of a threat against our Huskers who will be looking to avenge last season's eight-turnover debacle.

Kansas

Kansas is 2-2, posting wins over then-ranked Georgia Tech and the New Mexico State Aggies. Their losses include the inexplicable season opening game against North Dakoka State and Southern Miss. Clearly this is a rebuilding year for Kansas.

Texas A&M

The Aggies are 3-0, and they seem to be roughly the same team they were last year - with wild mood swings, but maybe more offense to carry them through some rough spots. Solid wins over Stephen F Austin and Louisiana Tech followed up by a head scratcher against Florida International that required the Aggies to score three fourth-quarter touchdowns to pull out a win.

Quarterback Jerrod Johnson threw four interceptions on four straight possessions in the third quarter, including a 54-yard pick six. Running back Christine Michael is having a great year so far, averaging just over 110 yards per game, while receiver Jeff Fuller is fourth in the Big 12 in receiving, and pulled in 160 yards against Louisiana Tech.

Texas A&M remains an enigma. They're a lot like Oklahoma State. They haven't played anyone of note, they're undefeated and they've had one close game against an opponent that they should have easily blow out. Maybe that's a pre-season requirement this year, because it seems to be contagious. Again, Thursday night's game is a must watch for Husker fans.

Colorado

Colorado is who we thought they were - rather lost and playing uninspired football. This year's game is most likely the last we'll ever play against them as well, despite their being smart enough to get out of the Big 12 when they could. I'm writing them off as a dangerous game, mostly because this game is in Lincoln. If I'm incorrect about that, let me know.

So Who is It?

Texas is the only opponent we'll face that has a defense the level of Nebraska's. Despite all the hand wringing and teeth gnashing over the South Dakota State game, the Jackrabbits were never really in danger of winning the game.

I'm not going to create another poll, but I would like to know if you have changed your thoughts about Nebraska's opponents this season. Does Kansas State present more of a threat than you thought previously? What about Texas?

All statistics courtesy of cfbstats.com

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Ranking Regular Season

Texas
@ A&M
@OSU
Mizzou
@KSU
Colorado
@ISU
Kansas

Texas because it is Texas. A&M because they are on the road and seem to be improving. @ OSU because they are on the road and they seem to have a stellar O. The rest seem self explanatory. I do have Colorado higher than ISU and Kansas because Colorado almost always plays us tough and they are the last game of the season where I expect us to maybe be looking forward to B12 CCG.

by JimmytheRed on Sep 29, 2010 9:51 AM CDT reply actions

You know I like NU on the road

They have played better away from Lincoln under Pelini.

You can't possibly be a scientist if you mind people thinking that you're a fool.
~Wanko the Sane
Big Red Kool-aid Drinker @ Corn Nation

by JLew on Sep 29, 2010 10:40 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions

Agreed.

by GBR918 on Sep 29, 2010 11:19 AM CDT up reply actions

Now that I look at the schedule again, I think I would only move OSU up since it is the week after Texas. Assuming a win against Texas, I would hope we wouldn’t have a let down, but if there is a week for a let down, that is the week.

by JimmytheRed on Sep 29, 2010 1:38 PM CDT up reply actions

I think the most dangerous game is at Oklahoma State, the Cowboys seem to be firing on all cylinders,and even though the are a pass happy team,which seams to play right in to the black shirts style of play, The cowboys are more than capable of moving the ball on the ground. in short the cowboys are the only team that is not one dimensional plus we have to go there a week after the Texas game. I would also like to say I think you are wrong about Texas losing to Oklahoma,for some reason Mac Brown has Stoops number and I do not see that changing especially since now Texas will become out with a chip on their shoulders. Texas A&M is not going to be that big of a game they will all ready will have at lest two loses, plus they do not really have a running game and lack a D that is good. Mizzo is going to be a hard fought game but it is in Lincoln and I just don’t see them coming in here and pulling off a win, plus their also to pass happy and will not want to stick to the run. Texas has to come in here and Bo is not going to loses, I think this is the Game we will all get to see the true Nebraska team. I think we will see new plays on both Offence & Defense side of the ball, Kansas State is much to one dimensional. and with out some help from the refs and Nebraska them selfs, huskers roll.

Donald Ray Hammond Sr.

by drayflyer@yahoo.com on Sep 29, 2010 10:22 AM CDT reply actions

My mind has changed some

First, I do agree with drayflyer that OSU is our most likely loss now. It’s on the road, the week after Texas, and they’ve got an offense. Yeah, they like to air it out, but with Kendall Hunter, they are really the only team on our schedule (apart from OU in the Big 12 title game) that is legitimately good at both running and throwing, so I could see issues there if our offense comes out unfocused. If we’re on our game, we should be able to outscore them pretty easily.

Next, I have a three way tie between KSU, A&M, and UT.

KSU- Great running back, horrible passing game, average talent, solid fundamentals. Plus Snyder with 2 weeks to get ready for us does scare me. KSU is a team that wins ugly. For whatever reason, I’ve always liked teams that win ugly. They have heart, determination, and can bring better teams to their knees. That said, we ARE the better team in almost every area.

A&M- The jury is still out here, but they definitely have talent and this is a game where I could see us getting tripped up as we’re in the home stretch and eyes drift toward the Big 12 title game.

UT- They’re basically at the same point Nebraska was last year. Very good (but not yet great) defense. Putrid offense. We have them at home, and Memorial Stadium will be rocking. Nebraska’s been waiting on this game since last December, so both the fans and players will be amped. On paper, there’s no way Texas wins this one. On the field, I’m expecting absolutely no breaks from the officials, I’m worried about Tmart going up against a really good defense, and with as lucky as those bastards have been against us, there’s no way you can count this as a shoo in victory.

The remaining teams on our schedule should be walkovers unless we collapse. While I don’t mean to disrespect Mizzou, they match up horribly with us. With no forward running game, they’ll have no deterrent to keep our defense honest, and our secondary will tear Gabbert apart.

"My hardest job is to convince the people of Nebraska that 10-1 is not a losing season." - Tom Osborne

by jdhusker on Sep 29, 2010 11:09 AM CDT reply actions

Last shot at Nebraska

This is everyone’s last shot at Nebraska. Every single one of the teams in the Big XII wants to beat us more this year than ever.

We ended KSU’s season last year in the defacto Big XII north title game. We were the throne in Snyder’s side for most of the 90’s and you better believe he wants to win this game more than any other on his schedule.

We broke Missouri’s heart last year in the 4th quarter and they wanted the Big 10 invite that we got. Not to mention that no one is talking about the NU-UM game anymore. Missouri is staying below the radar very well and coming of a stretch of Texas and @Oklahoma State we have to play this important game against Missouri.

Kansas is late in the season and though we should win, I’m guessing Turner wants to win that game pretty badly. With most of the season played, his players will have valuable game experience before they step onto the field in Lincoln.

Texas. They always seem to find a way at the end of the game to beat us. OU used sooner magic to break our hearts in the 70’s and 80’s and Texas finds a way to hook us no matter what.

Colorado always plays us tough. We are the game they circle every year and this will be their last shot at us for the foreseeable future. It could be the game that saves their coaches butt.

Iowa State may have been the best team in the Big XII last weekend. They found a way to beat us last year and if we play against them liked we played against SDSU, they will cook us again.

A&M is the game I worry the least about. We have had their number for the most part and they always seem to be missing a few pieces to put together a really solid team. Even on the road, I don’t see us losing this game. A&M benefited a lot from the deal they made with the Big XII to stay this summer and they got that deal because Nebraska left. Shouldn’t be much of a grudge there.

Oklahoma State. As far as competitive balance, the cowboys could prove to be one of the top teams in the conference this year. Or they could lay an egg Thursday night and be exposed as a work in progress.

by Aaron Musfeldt on Sep 29, 2010 2:11 PM CDT reply actions

You guys just beat South Dakota State 17-3...

…and yet there seems to be no shortage of expected wins. Husker fans can really talk themselves into anything. Nebraska loses 3 or 4 games this year.

by BuffsFan99 on Sep 29, 2010 6:08 PM CDT reply actions

Only to a Buffs fan would SDSU look like a true glimpse of the "real" Nebraska

Come on dude, it was one bad game. I don’t recall going over to RR after you lost to Cal what? 52-7? And even AFTER that I’ve read comments over there confidently predicting that the NU-CU Thanksgiving game will determine the North. I don’t think there’s a bigger case of delusion in the entire Big 12, but I didn’t try to start something by taunting the locals.

"My hardest job is to convince the people of Nebraska that 10-1 is not a losing season." - Tom Osborne

by jdhusker on Sep 29, 2010 6:36 PM CDT up reply actions