Five Reasons Nebraska Will Lose to Washington
by Jon Johnston on Sep 17, 2010 7:00 AM CDT
in Nebraska Husker Football
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I'm not feeling nearly as confident about the Washington game as most of my Husker fan counterparts. Jake Locker is the only Husky player anyone has ever heard of but that doesn't mean Washington is lacking in playmakers. Nor does it mean Nebraska isn't capable of giving this game away. There are some danger spots to be aware of, covered after the jump.
I'll give you a hint. Turnovers isn't one of them. That's a factor in every game. Too easy. I like it hard. Ha!
Chris Polk Running Up the Middle
Jake Locker, Jake Locker, Jake Locker. That's the only name Husker fans seem to recognize, but that's understandable given the amount of press the guy has gotten being a prize NFL prospect. The real problem for Nebraska is running back Chris Polk. So far, the Blackshirts haven't been great as stopping direct running plays, giving up 155 yards to Western Kentucky's Bobby Rainey, and flashes of that problem were seen again against Idaho.
The problem isn't the defensive line, it's the linebackers. Will Compton's injury has made a difference, and while Lavonte David has been all over the field, he's still learning the system. Whether it's Eric Martin, Alonzo Whaley, or someone else, the middle must be contained.
Polk has already run for 209 yards this season, averaging 5.81 ypc. He's just a sophomore, but so is Rex Burkhead.
Lack of A Vertical Passing Threat
Earlier this week, Bo Pelini stated that the lack of downfield passes early in the season is a calculated tactic. To be blunt, that statement smells a bit. Against Idaho, Husker fans saw Taylor Martinez miss a wide open Mike McNeill for a sure touchdown pass. McNeill's frustration was apparent.
It's one thing for the coaches to tell us that Martinez has done well in throwing during practice, quite another during a game, and even more so on the road. Niles Paul is the only Husker receiver in the top 100 nationally, and he's tied at 97th. If Martinez can't hit the long throws and utilize weapons like Paul and McNeill, the Washington defense will have an advantage in stopping the run game.
Crowd Noise
I've already mentioned crowd noise as a factor in a Husker loss during this series, and it could easily happen again. It's easy to say that you won't be affected, but that doesn't take into account that your linemen may not able to hear you audible or your signals unless you're under center. That could seriously alter Nebraska's game plan.
Could there really be 20k-25k Husker fans showing up in Seattle this weekend? I don't doubt it, but I'll believe it when I see it (and if that's the case it will be GRAND). If that's the case, it'll make a big difference in the game.
Penalties Taking Points Off the Board
The Huskers lost their first road game in 2009 at Virginia Tech, and you could point to penalties as the cause. Third quarter, first-and-goal at the six. Zac Lee hits Mike McNeill for an apparent touchdown, but it's called back on a holding penalty. Penalty after penalty struck, and the Huskers ended up with no points.
Those are the kinds of mistakes a team shouldn't be making in Bo Pelini's third year, but they're still around. If this team takes points off the board because of these kinds of mistakes again this season, you have to wonder how much progress they're really making.
Slow Start
Taylor Martinez was an unknown quantity when he took the field against Western Kentucky. That's not the case anymore. Washington will be keying on him throughout the game in an effort to make sure he doesn't blaze away with one of his long runs early in the game.
If Washington can get an early lead, it may force Nebraska into an offense they're not fully prepared to run. Taylor Martinez will be forced to throw the ball, something that's not his strength at this time. If this happens, Washington fans may be a bigger factor in the game and minimize all those people in red.
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Thanks for the skeptical check-in, Jon...
Changed your online handle but still cast a blight on excessive optimism.
Fingers crossed.
Beers coolin’.
Tomato juice stocked.
It’s gonna be good to watch.
And $40 cheaper.
I'm also concerned about all of these points
But part of me keeps thinking, “Wait a second, this is a team that had a losing record last year and is picked to finish in the middle of the Pac-10 this year. Why are we so freaked out?”
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Nebraska lose (I think they’ll actually win a close one), but I think we’re treating Washington as a better team than they are, mostly because it’s our first “big” game of the year.
Henery and Special Teams
If we keep the turnovers down, Henery and the special teams will control the field. In this case the game will feel similar to the Texas game and our offense should be able to mount enough drives to score enough to win.
I really think this game comes down to turnovers.
Haunted by the ghosts of Callahan
After seeing Nebraska lose almost every game that was considered a “big” game during the Callahan years, I am basically not surprised to see us lose any game…but especially a hyped up game like this. Basically, ever since 2001 against Colorado, if Nebraska could choke, they would.
When we lost to Virginia Tech and Texas last year I wasn’t one bit surprised. Sure, we played close. Against Virginia Tech it looked like we had the game won and all our defense had to do was stop them one last time…and my friend says, “We’re going to lose, watch.” Next play, blown coverage Virginia Tech gets most of the way down the field.
I had the same thought during the Big 12 championship once we took the lead. About three minutes later Texas is headed for Pasedena.
Bo Pelini is by far a better coach than Callahan ever was, and he’s definitely won some games that I wouldn’t have been surprised if we had lost. Take the Missouri and Oklahoma games last year. Or the Gator bowl in 08’. The more games Nebraska wins like that the more the ghosts of Callahan disappear.
This is a game that we should win. This is a game against a middle of the road Pac-10 team. The Pac-10 is a weaker conference than the Big 12 this year, no doubt about it. And if we have a team that is capable of winning the Big 12 championship like everyone believes, then this game shouldn’t be much of a problem.
But perhaps this will be yet another chance for Nebraska to choke and the ghost of Callahan will live on. I think Nebraska will win…and if they lose, I’d be disappointed but not surprised.
Wow the optimism is over the top:)
Five reasons the Cornhuskes will win. 1. Jake Lockler will not have the time to trhow his receivers will be blanketed. 2. The run defense will not be a pourus as you think. Against WK we had brand new linebackers. They have 2 more weeks under their belt.
3. WU is not that good of a team they lost to unranked BYU. And beat Syracuse that won how many games last year in a week conference. 4. If you don’t think Bo and Wats have been holding stuff back for when they really need it, I beleive you are very mistaken. This is Bo not Callahan, he says what he means. 5. WU’s defense willnot be able to slow down our offense to many weapons for a so-so defense. in my humble opion.:)
Who's WU?
It’s the University of Washington (UW).
by huskyfollower on Sep 17, 2010 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions
Frankly Jon, I've gotta disagree
Unless UW suddenly flips a switch as is WAY better than they’re looking, the only scenario I see for a Washington victory is Martinez getting rattled and turning the ball over a bunch. If he has even an ok day, I think we’ll win comfortably.
"My hardest job is to convince the people of Nebraska that 10-1 is not a losing season." - Tom Osborne
Are You A Husker Fan??!!
I couldn’t even finish reading your article because it pissed me off so much. All I have to say is that we have two of the best defensive coaches in football and all you can write about is how our young linebackers are. Bo and Carl have been eyeing this game since the off season because we haven’t went undefeated in conference play for a long time. There team will be prepared!!
Are You A Husker Fan??!!
I couldn’t even finish reading your article because it pissed me off so much. All I have to say is we have two of the best defensive coaches in football and all you can write about is how young linebackers are. Bo and Carl have been eyeing this game since the off season because we haven’t went undefeated in non-conference play for a long time. There team will be prepared!!
Even the best coaches lose games
And Jon does this 5 reasons Nebraska will lose thing for every losable game on our schedule. He doesn’t actually think we will. Of course there’s nothing wrong with thinking your team will lose. Most people would call that rational thought triumphing over homerism.
"My hardest job is to convince the people of Nebraska that 10-1 is not a losing season." - Tom Osborne
Furthermore,
"...when the devil says to you: do not drink, answer him: I will drink, and right freely, just because you tell me not to."
— Martin Luther
Fun fact
Washington is 31-67 since 2002. How does a program like that even begin to recruit players that can hang with a top 10 team? Yeah yeah, they beat USC last season but we all know USC stunk last year and the Pac 10 was overrated as a whole.
The more I look into this the more I see weaknesses in this team. Even now I’m changing my mind. I’m going to go with Nebraska winning comfortably.
Nebraska on the otherhand
65-40 since 2002…not too impressive, but still worlds better than UW. We’re 21-8 in the past two seasons and UW is 6-20. I know that anything can happen, but the fact is this is a bottom feeder Pac-10 program who is average at best…so this season they are probably average.
Slightly deceptive
The huskies results are somewhat deceptive. Not all of their issues are due to lack of talent. They’ve had chaos in the admin roles. Their schudule in the recent past has been very difficult. Out of division opponents like Nebraska, Ohio State, Boise St, LSU are pretty darn tough opponents for a rebuilding program. Even a mediocre team is going to look bad with Pac-10 play and opponents like that.
You’d be suprised about recruiting. Steve Sarkisian has changed the attitude 180degrees. ESPN scouts gave them #20 rating for 2010 class, that’s higher than NE got. People here have really bought into the hype and that’ll help turn it around quickly.
Of course, I think NE should and will win. They’re more talented, deeper, etc. But UW has some talent in key positions that shouldn’t be written off. They’re well coached. They will be trouble if taken lightly. They’re a much better team this year than the last few.
Crowd Noise
Why does everyone think the crowd noise will be such a factor? It’s estimated that 1/3 of the crowd will be NU fans. That’s huge people. That will be 1/3 of the crowd being silent at the right times and 1.3 of the crowd being loud at the right times.
X-Factors
Your single most point that could expose an “perceived” NU weakness is if their running game minimizes the chances the Lockear has to take throwing the ball down the field. X-Factors to counter your arguments:
1. UW’s young team will be emotionally drained the second half.
2. NUs kicking game.
3. Proven performance by NUs secondary in big games against big time QBs—been there, done that.
4. NUs OL depth.
5. Two good QBs on the bench (i.e. “relief” pitchers).
6. Bo—-Bo loves to take chances with bliztes in certain situations (knows when to hold them, and knows when to let them go).
Point #1
I think you hit the nail on the head, or halfway on the head with your first point. I saw something in the 2nd half of the Idaho game that I haven’t seen in years: the other team was visibly whooped physically. Both Husker lines had physically beaten them into submission. Again, I’m not worried about giving up points early, because regardless of how the game begins, it will end with the phyical nature of the brothers’ Pelini agressive play winning the day.
Proud winner of the 2010 Corn Nation March Madness Tournament.
Come on.
Its always possible to lose, but we wont. ESPN and most anylists are really trying hard to make this a “Big Game”, because they are the same ones that have done such a terrible job of once again trying to forsee the future and have picked games to be huge, and were a blowout. I think people are reaching here. We are out five starters right now, and are having to iron some issues out, but when we get do, look out.
Husker Fans @ Husky Staduim
FYI. I HIGHLY doubt the number of Huskers at Husky Staduim will exceed 15k. It’s pointless to compare this game to when you guys played ND, when the crowd was supposedly 50/50. That game was a 10 hour drive away from Lincoln…not two time zones like Seattle.
Most importantly (for Husky fans) is that more than 80% of Husky Staduim’s seats are between the 20 yard lines. This is important because even IF there are a lot NU fans, the vast majority of them will not be close to field or beneath the steel ceilings. Thus, not affecting the volume in Husky Staduim. Just an FYI…
Husker Fans @ Husky Staduim
Be that as it may, Bo thrives on playing in hostile environments and Stadiums. He has his teams well prepared to handle the crowds. Can’t think of a single game on the road the past several years that the crowd was a factor, and that includes several very hostile sites.
Also, you clearly don’t understand Nebraska if you think traveling 2 whole time zones (!) would make a difference.
GBR!
by HoustonHusker98 on Sep 17, 2010 4:29 PM CDT reply actions
Perhaps a different perspective
I for one certainly expect a good and aggressive game on both sides of the ball all day long on Saturday. Obviously, the University of Washington football program is not Western Kentucky, and while Idaho had the number 4 quarterback prospect, the Huskies have the number one quarterback prospect as well as a good receiving corp and rushers and yes they could beat the Huskers. The question is, will they? With all of the hyperbole about this game, I think we need to ask another question… Is this the best team the Huskers will face during the regular season this year? I think the resounding answer to this question is NO. There are probably 5 or 6 teams Nebraska will play this year in the Big 12 conference play that are equal to or better than Washington. Many of the predictions I have seen are very close, within the 3.5 margin. Maybe that will be the case. Maybe our beloved Huskers are not as good as we think. Maybe not… For me, I think the team has been quite vanilla, on purpose. The coaches holding back. If possible, they will hold back in this game as well. But if they need it, I think there are another 3 gears in this scarlet and cream Husker jalopy.
husker fans @ husky stadium
If you HIGHLY DOUBT there will be 15,000 sker fans tomorrow, let me be the first to assure you that you will be WRONG. One example: wake forest 07 (callahan), it was MORE than 50/50 in favor of red. Definitely more than 15k for wake freaking forest, under Callahan. On another note…there were a good # of Nebraska fans that bought season tickets for Washington, just to be assured of a ticket. You don’t have to believe me though, You can find out tomorrow how Husker fans travel. I hope to see a great game… I’m sure it will be, GBR!!
husker fans @ husky stadium
It’s hilarious that anyone could “HIGHLY doubt” Husker fans won’t travel 2 “whole” time zones. I know people who traveled to Japan in 1992 to watch us play K-State. JAPAN!!!!
This guy is obiously not familiar with the greatest fans in the world.
GOOOO BIIIIIIIIIG REEEEEED!!!!! GO BIG RED!
Lovin it!
You Cornholers underestimate what is about to happen to you tomorrow. Obviously if you’re sitting on your comp at 8:48 (10:48 NB time?) trying to talk a lil smack you won’t be there.. Maybe some of you have been to Husky Stadium during our 90’s rivalries but we’ll see what happens in 15 hours. Omaha’s prediction of 25k fans is a joke.. I expect 15k max and if any of them are sitting near me I will punch them in the gosh darn nutsack.. They will all be outside of the 80% of the stadium (the overhangs) that is covered with purp and gold.. Taylor will be rattled, no question. It’s gonna be up to the 2nd half changes whether this game goes the Dawgs way or the Cornholers way. I’ll take a 5th year SR over a RS frosh any day of the week, especially at my home where I will be screaming my ass off all day. Be afraid. Be very afraid.
by Kellen Mukluk McCullough on Sep 17, 2010 11:00 PM CDT reply actions
?
wait, do they have internet in Nebraska? I thought you just had sisters and cows… Sorry for posting to no one
by Kellen Mukluk McCullough on Sep 17, 2010 11:18 PM CDT up reply actions
No, we don't.
I had to go out side and pump my internet straight from the well. Nothing like well internet. Hopefully we get some more people so we can finally become apart of the union. Being a territory blows. We have to fight off indian attacks and hunt for our food every night.
by Look_A_Red_Squirrel on Sep 17, 2010 11:36 PM CDT up reply actions
HAHAHA
I remember the good ole days of pumpin my internet from the well. Guess we’ll have to settle for having a vastly superior football team. Oh well.
by Husker D in AZ on Sep 19, 2010 8:03 PM CDT up reply actions
For this year...
I would take Locker too, one of the best QB’s in the country who wouldn’t? And you got one LB I wouldn’t mind wearing red, and one reciever also! But we got 19 other players that would start over the rest of you team. So as long as football is still a team sport at gametime I like our odds! I think it is a joke that a mediocre passing attack is what is gonna win the game against the best secondary in the country!
by huskerhank21 on Sep 18, 2010 3:37 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
the attack
Ha! Squirrel, you’re the man. I didn’t expect that great of response! I’m cracking up and thinking about starting some Lewis and Clark shit. Let’s have a good game eh?
by Kellen Mukluk McCullough on Sep 18, 2010 12:09 AM CDT reply actions
The new Colorado
Ok, so the huskers have to travel to seattle to play an improved huskie team. Yes early on this game will be close. But when the huskers get settled in and put some points up and the huskies fall behind it will be all she wrote. I know all the washington hopeful are trying to make this the biggest game of the year for them, Like Colorado buffs used to do but it isn’t going to do much. I mean they lost to BYU who got smoked by air force, and they beat syracuse not saying much. But i have faith that bo and the big red will be ready for the huskies best shot. And to you Kellen Mukluk McCullough i invite you back to this board tomorrow to talk about your huskies and their Superman quarterback. Please do show up EH?
56 Reasons
Well well Mr. Johnston. Seems we’re not the all knowing predictor we thought we were. I’ve got 56 reasons that Nebraska will beat./has beat Washington. Taylor Martinez looked pretty damn good to me on his first road trip. He made tough third down conversions when it counted and on more than one occassion left the Huskies looking like they were dragging dog sleds trying to catch him. Add two interceptions by our leading defensive secondary and an aggressive front four and you’ve got a lethal combination for opposing teams. Let’s try and be a little more objective in the future shall we.
YOU WERE SAYING...?
What was the title of the original article post again? Couldn’t have been more wrong!
Did
the five reasons we’d lose come true? If they had, do you think we would have lost?
Probably, but they didn’t, so we didn’t either.
And to be blunt, if you’d have felt so strongly about it beforehand, you’d have said something before the game, not after.
Strong opinions are welcome here.
Anyone is free to join our community and partake in discussions, but if you’re going to do that, I’d prefer you add to the discussion, not bring forward some weak “nanner nanner” stuff after the fact.
Go Big Red Nebraska!
Our Cobs Are Bigger Than Yours!
Corn Nation!
Twitter!
cornnation@gmail.com
Still a great article
I like the idea of droppin a little pessimism in the Husker kool-aid. Some fans have some crazy pie-in-the-sky expectations. This is good for us.
Should be a column every week (good luck with that for next week tho).
Also, a suggested title change: 5 reasons the Huskers COULD lose on Saturday. Might take a little heat off you JJ.
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