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Blogpoll - 2010 College Football Preseason Ranking Begins With the Top Ten

Real football is less than a month away (I'm giving Western Kentucky the benefit of the doubt here), and the other major polls have come out, so it's time for me to get to work on my blogpoll rankings. It's more difficult than it sounds, unless you just take the other polls and change them a bit, or go for shock value, like ranking Notre Dame in the top 15. 

Reality is you need to have a rationalization to start with any ranking, so this is an attempt at explaining why I'm picking the top ten where I am. 

It starts with looking at who's going to win the major conferences - the SEC, the Big Ten, Big 12, and the Pac 10. Those are the guys who are going to finish at the top, along with the regular non-BCS contenders like Boise State, TCU, and maybe Utah. 

Star-divide

Looking at those parameters, you'd conclude that: 

Alabama is favored to win the SEC (again)

Ohio State is favored to win the Big Ten

Oklahoma is favored to win the Big 12 

The Non-BCS teams, Boise State and TCU, will have only a few tough games. 

Oregon is favored to win the Pac 10, kind of but that conference is a mess. 

Out of that you can take your top four. Which is most likely to finish undefeated? Certainly not Oregon, and probably not Alabama because the SEC is tough all around, but Alabama gets a nod because I'm a traditionalist who believes you're #1 until you're knocked off or there are darned good reasons that you shouldn't be there (coaching turnover, major scandal, half the team comes down with flesh-eating bacteria and is gone for the season). 

The Ohio St. Buckeyes are favored to win the Big Ten, but will they go undefeated? With four home non-conference games to start the season, it's unlikely they'll lose before conference play (even though one of those games is against Miami-FL). They get Wisconsin at Camp Randall, Penn State at home, another tough road game in traveling to Iowa, and then finishing against a Michigan team that can't seem to get its crap together. 

Undefeated? It's a toss up, but let's compare them against Oklahoma because what we're looking for here is trying to predict their relative seasons. 

Oklahoma has three non-conference games at home, one against Florida State and then they travel to Cincinnati. Texas is up next, Missouri and Texas A&M are on the road, but Texas Tech is at home (Lubbock has been a thorn in OU's side, but they beat regularly beat Tech at home). Oklahoma State shouldn't provide much bedlam this year. 

Undefeated? Texas is always a big game, but I don't believe Missouri will be able to stop the Sooner offense, and Texas A&M is as inconsistent as most politicians so who knows what will happen in College Station. I don't see rival Oklahoma State creating much bedlam this season, so the Sooners will be safe there. 

I'm a Big 12 wonk so, of course Oklahoma will get the nod. This will change next year, obviously (or maybe not, I've hated Ohio State for years and I don't see that changing). 

Oh, wait. I'm a Nebraska wonk, too. Shouldn't I be putting Nebraska up there to win the Big 12 (am I committing blasphemy?) or should I keep Oklahoma where they are? Realistically, and to maintain some level of credibility, I don't think you can rank Nebraska above Oklahoma right now because of Nebraska's quarterback situation, and the fact that the offense has to show something before you can really say they're ahead of Oklahoma. The road game against Washington is huge for Nebraska's chance at finishing in the top ten. 

Before you get bent, keep in mind that preseason polls mean nothing. We're guessing, and by "we" - I mean everyone who does a poll, everywhere. The coaches ranked Texas #4. What the hell they're smoking I have no idea. They ranked Texas above Oklahoma. Get that? Texas lost their top offensive players (Colt McCoy and Jordan Shipley) and has to establish a running game to win against Oklahoma who returns a starter at quarterback (Landry Jones), the Big 12's (arguably) best running back (DeMarco Murray) and wide receiver (Ryan Broyles) set. Again, what were they thinking? Or are they just filling things out because Mack Brown is more likable than Bob Stoops? 

Up next, the Pac-10. With USC in deep turbulence, there's no clear-cut top team. Oregon took a hit when quarterback Jeremiah Masoli was dismissed. The common belief has the Pac-10 beating itself up, so that no one will finish undefeated. It's more likely the top team will have at least two losses in conference play, so the Pac-10 will be out of the top ten completely. 

Non-BCS contenders and Indepenents including TCU, Boise State, Utah, and Notre Dame. Notre Dame... ha! They're not getting anything until they can prove that they can win some games. TCU's non-conference schedule includes Oregon State in Texas, compared to Boise State's opening match at Fed Ex Field, which might as well be a home game for Virginia Tech. The edge goes to TCU, but if Boise State wins their game against the Hokies, it'll be huge for them in the rankings. Even if they jump TCU, TCU will most likely win most their games, so they're a top ten contender along with the Broncos. 

Let's not forget the ACC and Big East.... well, let's not forget the ACC anyway. That gives us Miami, Florida State, and Virginia Tech as the most probable teams to consider. Virginia Tech was picked as the media's favorite to win the conference title, and as a Big 12 wonk, who am I to argue with them? Unfortunately for the Hokies, they seem to lose a couple games each season because their offense sucks - always. Still, a conference champion should be highly ranked. 

Let's drop down to second-place finishers, teams who have the highest chance of winning all or nearly all their games, but losing in their conference title games. Again, we're looking at teams from the Big 12, Big Ten, and SEC. The most likely candidates in those conferences are Nebraska, Florida, and Iowa. You have to rank the SEC team higher because the SEC is so awesome every year (just ask their fans), so that would put Florida above Nebraska. Is the Big 12 better than the Big Ten? Yes, at least for another year, so Nebraska moves ahead of Iowa. 

Wait. Why Florida in the SEC? Florida doesn't return a starter at quarterback, but they return most of their defense. They travel to Tennessee (coaching change), Alabama (picked to win the SEC) and Vanderbilt. They produce players like 

And to round out our top ten, we'll throw the Pac 10 favorite in just to appease the people on the West coast. 

Given all rationalization, here's my first Blogpoll 2010 Top Ten: 

1. Alabama 

2. Oklahoma

3. Ohio State

4. TCU

5. Florida

6. Nebraska

7. Boise State

8. Iowa 

9. Virginia Tech

10. Oregon

I know that CN has picked up a lot more followers over the past year, so if you're not familiar with the Blogpoll, consider it the only poll in which you, the fan, get to have a say. You give me some good feedback, and I change my poll. It gets sent in mid-week, every week of the regular season, and compiled with the other participants to create an unbiased ranking of college football teams. 

Now, tell me what's flawed. 

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Switch Boise State and TCU

Considering this is a preseason poll, I don’t really understand your logic about ranking these two teams according to the difficulty of the games they have yet to play.

I think the best way to rank these two Non-BCS teams as early top ten squads would be to try to (1)sum up last year, and then (2)predict the outcome for this year: 1.) Boise State 17, TCU 10. The last game either of these two teams played was against each other in last year’s Fiesta Bowl, and that one went to the Broncos. 2.) Boise State will be returning an astonishing 21 starters to this years squad (an advantage that very well may put them in the BCS Championship), compared to TCU’s 16 returning starters (which is nothing to frown at, by any means).

Based on these two criteria, I say leave both in the top ten and simply switch their rankings, as they may both be key players in this season’s national championship discussions. Everything else looks good to me.

by GBR918 on Aug 13, 2010 11:35 AM CDT reply actions  

I like your top 10 as a whole. I would shuffle it around a bit, though. I would flip-flop TCU and BSU and I think OU is a bit high. Not sure where to put them, maybe in the bottom half of the top 10?

by VA Husker on Aug 13, 2010 11:36 AM CDT reply actions  

Pretty good and all the right players

But I would move Florida behind Iowa, NU and Boise. I would also move Iowa ahead of Nebraska.
Iowa has a Senior Quaterback that is light years ahead of our situation and a defense that rivals ours. If Stanzi doesnt get hurt last year the had a shot at the NCG.
I

So I tried the Barbasol and Rotel dip and I was very dissapointed!

by Amonra on Aug 13, 2010 11:44 AM CDT reply actions  

Disagree.

I think Iowa is getting way too much love from all of the preseason pollsters. The Hawkeyes are only returning 2/5 starters on the O-line (one of whom is a sophomore), and there are many questions for Iowa at the running back and linebacker positions. This team will be good, but will need to prove a lot in order to merit a season long top-ten ranking.

by GBR918 on Aug 13, 2010 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions  

Stanzi is a pick-6 waiting to happen

I think this looks pretty good. I would probably flip OSU and OU. OSU seems far more likely to run the table than OU right now, although I definitely like the Sooners as a top 5 team.

I also agree with VA Husker about flipping TCU and Boise. Boise beat TCU fairly handily last year and they return 20 starters. That, my friends is scary.

"My hardest job is to convince the people of Nebraska that 10-1 is not a losing season." - Tom Osborne

by jdhusker on Aug 13, 2010 11:53 AM CDT reply actions  

Stanzi might be a Rick-Six waiting to happen

But wouldn’t you take him over Lee any day?
Either way, both NU and Iowa should be over Florida.

So I tried the Barbasol and Rotel dip and I was very dissapointed!

by Amonra on Aug 13, 2010 12:19 PM CDT up reply actions  

Get back to me on that one

If we’re talking Holiday Bowl Lee, then I don’t think so. Stanzi is one of those leader-type quarterbacks who is, to be generous an average athlete and quarterback. He seems to get the job done in the ugliest way possible, but he usually DOES get the job done. I think Iowa deserves a top 10 spot just as much as Nebraska does, but imo, not higher than 9 or 10.

"My hardest job is to convince the people of Nebraska that 10-1 is not a losing season." - Tom Osborne

by jdhusker on Aug 13, 2010 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

Meh.

You guys keep laying the hate envy on pretty thick. See you October 16 when we are 5-0.

by TXStampede on Aug 13, 2010 9:12 PM CDT reply actions  

thanks so much

for contributing to the conversation.

Go Big Red Nebraska!
Our Cobs Are Bigger Than Yours!
Corn Nation!
Twitter!
cornnation@gmail.com

by Jon Johnston on Aug 13, 2010 10:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

Contribution?

Not sure any rational arguments posted here for Texas being ranked a top 10 team wouldn’t meet with several sanctimonious cries of “you don’t know what your talking about.” So what’s the point of contributing? Can you point to any credible pre-season poll that does not have Texas as a Top 10 team? Do you really think if played today that Iowa has a snowball chance in hell of beating Texas? Seriously Jon, c’mon. I implore you to rethink placing 2 BCS at-large teams and an Oregon team with a revolving QB issue ahead of Texas. If nothing more than to lend credibility to your unbiased pre-season ranking. Do you know something that other college football aficionados don’t?

A top-10 poll without Texas does not pass the smell test.

by TXStampede on Aug 14, 2010 8:56 AM CDT up reply actions  

Jon, as much as I hate to say it

He’s partially right. I would disagree about Iowa. I’d take the Hawkeye defense over an offense led by a very green qb and lacking its far and away leading receiver from last year. That may change by the end of the season, but this poll is about right now. I would however probably take UT over both TCU and Oregon. Give them #8, I’d say.

With that said dude, I don’t see Texas having much of a chance of being undefeated when you guys come to Lincoln. Barring some sort of lightning strike like last year, you’ll lose in Dallas to OU. Tech in Lubbock could also be an issue although I don’t know enough about that team yet to make a call on it. Obviously if they’re totally asleep, the Horns could drop one to UCLA at home, although I’m not counting on that. Coming into Lincoln, I think you’ll at best be 4-1 with a possibility of being 3-2.

Don’t consider this Horn Hate (although I have plenty of that too). It’s simply a recognition that with a new quarterback who doesn’t necessarily have a go to receiver, combined with a very tough early season schedule, there are going to be some bumps in the road.

"My hardest job is to convince the people of Nebraska that 10-1 is not a losing season." - Tom Osborne

by jdhusker on Aug 14, 2010 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions  

okay

There will be an update next week….

I’ll move Texas into the top ten somewhere, probably ahead of Oregon.

Go Big Red Nebraska!
Our Cobs Are Bigger Than Yours!
Corn Nation!
Twitter!
cornnation@gmail.com

by Jon Johnston on Aug 14, 2010 12:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

make

your rational arguments and see what happens.

Listen, I expect us all to behave pretty rationally this season. If any Husker fan gets too nuts, they’ll get the same treatment as you guys will if you get out of hand.

I don’t see Texas as a top-ten team because they have somewhat of the same problem that Nebraska has – they’re going to have to establish an offense to win games. They haven’t ran the ball well in the past few years, and until that changes, your offense isn’t going to be that good. Defense will be exceptional (again), so you may look a lot like Nebraska last season (although… I doubt your offense will be THAT bad).

And whether we like it or not, polls are largely based on win-loss records. Neither Boise State nor TCU will lose many games. I do not expect you guys to beat Oklahoma, nor Nebraska. Were Leach still around, I’d expect you to lose in Lubbock, too, but that isn’t the case this year. Then there’s Texas A&M. (Ha!)

Go Big Red Nebraska!
Our Cobs Are Bigger Than Yours!
Corn Nation!
Twitter!
cornnation@gmail.com

by Jon Johnston on Aug 14, 2010 12:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

Is there any such thing?
Can you point to any credible pre-season poll that does not have Texas as a Top 10 team?

Jon,
A hint with dealing with a lot of Texas fans. If you don’t agree with them or give into their side of the argument then you’re being unreasonable.

by ccmachine on Aug 14, 2010 9:14 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Not suprising I disagree

I think the word you were looking for is subservient. Or maybe insubordinate. But definitely not unreasonable. ;)

by TXStampede on Aug 15, 2010 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions  

Oregon?

Alright now I can buy into all of this except, Boise behind TCU, and Oregon in the top ten.

Boise has to be ahead of TCU. I will start off with the same logic you stated for Bama being #1, which I totally agree with, Boise beat TCU last game either team played so until knocked off that hill shouldn’t they be king? And also the team that won that returned 20+ starters, not sure of exact number. I don’t see any way to reason TCU ahead in this one?

Now with Oregon at number 10 I do understand your logic, if not them then who? Now with Masoli still running the offense I would completely agree and maybe put them even higher. Now they are falling back on a completely untested backup to run this offense.

In place of them, as much as I hate to admit it, I would pry put Miami. They showed serious talent last year. Harris is a stud that runs the O. If they get some consistancy I look for them is my dark horse, with the understanding that my beloved Huskers are picked by way to many people to stlii be considered a dark horse!

by huskerhank21 on Aug 14, 2010 12:53 AM CDT via mobile reply actions  

Nebraska 6?

I’d like to think Nebraska is 6 or better, but they don’t deserve that in a “PRE” season poll. They’ve got a lot to prove on offense. I think (hope) they will prove deserving, but to give that rating, partially based on the bowl performance, doesn’t reflect the horrible offense we really saw last year.

Who else in your top 10 had anything near as bad an offense as we did? Are you really saying anybody that could win 10 games with that bad an offense deserves a top 10 rating? If you are going to drop anyone to add Texas, I’d recommend Nebraska. Now that is blasphemous, but if we want credibility in a preseason poll that’s my recommendation.

by Corny on Aug 14, 2010 10:39 AM CDT reply actions  

Texas has alot to prove.

We did lose the all time winningest qb and our top receiver as well as our big time dt and start safety.
Not to mention a great linebacker as well.
Plus our offensive line doesnt look all that great.

But I think the place where we can most easily replace production is the safety position. Kenny Vaccaro, Blake Gideon, and Christian Scott all look to become big time players. I think we can increase the number of incerceptions we had from our safties despite losing earl.

At receiver we have a ton of talent. Although there have been some inconsistency issues I do think by the time we hit Ou Gilbert and crew should have alot of that figured out.

Our offensive line may have some issues. We had them last year too as evidenced by the Nebraska game. The squad this year has looked good at times and so long as they can run block and not let the pocket collapse at every opportunity we should be fine.

At qb we have a guy with all the talent in the world, and a winning pedigree. I have only really heard good things about him. It took him a little while to get into the flow of things but he was a blindside tackle away from potentially leading a game winning touchdown drive. He brought us back into the game and within 3. He has also looked really good in practice so I am going to go with we should be good here.

Our offense should be good. Defense elite. The most overlooked part of our team? Special teams. I dont know the number off the top of my head but our special teams is just about the most dangerous in all of college football. They have the ability to break away for a touchdown on just about any play.

by AlDe2356 on Aug 14, 2010 3:11 PM CDT reply actions  

I've never been a fan of preseason polls

But I’ll state my case for Texas:

1. I think we will have the best defense in the Big 12, and if not, we’ll have the best secondary at least, even without Earl Thomas. We are loaded at defensive end (the best DE unit from top to bottom in the country, in my opinion) and have quality linebackers. We have a question mark at DT next to Kheeston Randall and we have a question mark at safety without Thomas, but safeties Kenny Vaccarro and Christian Scott are coming along and we have options at DT. This is why we have more than a “lightning’s strike” chance of beating Oklahoma. I’m sure even OU fans would hesitate to call themselves such overwhelming favorites against Texas.

2. Garrett Gilbert is the real deal. He will have his new QB struggles and I’m expecting at least one of those WTF games where he turns the ball over three times (I’m hoping it doesn’t happen, but it’s reasonable to expect out of all new quarterbacks). But the guy can play.

3. We will definitely miss Shipley, but we have a ton of talent at wide receiver. It will be a dynamic unit that can make big plays, although no one is as reliable as Shipley was.

4. The run game will be better. I’m not expecting someone to just explode like Jamaal Charles, because we don’t have someone like him, but the new changes seem to be good ones and while we don’t have a stand out runner, that doesn’t mean we don’t have good runners. Tre Newton and Cody Johnson run with toughness and good vision.

5. As some above posters are pointing out, it is easy to see departures and problems on other teams. Oregon has a QB issue, Oklahoma has to replace guys like Gerald McCoy and try to improve a mediocre offensive line without Trent Williams, Ohio State needs to put together a passing game, Nebraska has Zac Lee at quarterback, Iowa’s offense also has issues, etc. Also, the talent differential from schools like TCU and Boise State to Texas is significant, especially when it comes to depth, although those two schools may finish with better records based on schedule.

With that said, I would agree that Texas at #4 might be a tad high, but it is not irrational as you make it seem, and Texas being in the Top 10 is pretty non-controversial. We had one of the best defenses in the country last year, and while we lose some pieces there like Houston, Thomas, and Kindle, most of the starters return. That alone will give us a chance in any game, and merits Top 10 consideration.

by TheElusiveShadow on Aug 14, 2010 4:38 PM CDT reply actions  

reasonable
  1. - isn’t the problem with the run game your offensive line more than your backs? I mean… your line just hasn’t been physical and nasty enough to run the ball – why would that change this season?

Media tends to rank lines by longevity. If you’re a two-year starter, you must be good, right? Again, why would that change?

Go Big Red Nebraska!
Our Cobs Are Bigger Than Yours!
Corn Nation!
Twitter!
cornnation@gmail.com

by Jon Johnston on Aug 14, 2010 8:27 PM CDT up reply actions  

That is partially true

I think the running game problems have been a mixture of line problems and also scheme problems. In other words, we don’t have a smooth connection between personnel and what we’re trying to run. That looks top be better in the future, but we will see.

As far as ranking lines, while counting the number of starts a line has can give us some idea of experience and the natural presumption seems to be more experience = more skill, that’s not always the case. If a line is bad when they’re all juniors, there isn’t a whole lot of reason to all of a sudden expect them to be strong the next year. For example, while Texas didn’t have an awful line last year, it was not a dominant one, and Texas fans knew it coming into the season, regardless of the total number of stars. We knew it because we watched them play.

We have some question marks on the line for sure, but we’re also excited about guys like Mason Walters. Many Texas fans are actually optimistic that the young guys will prove to be an upgrade overall. Nonetheless, it’s a legit criticism of Texas right now, but I don’t see how OU’s line is in significantly better shape than ours as of today.

In any case, I know that we have the potential to do something big this year, but I also know this may be a season that we have to be really patient. Barring injury, four losses would be completely unacceptable, but three losses, while disappointing, wouldn’t surprise me. Two losses would be a decent season, and better than that would obviously be awesome. We have a four game stretch that comes relatively early in the season—Tech, UCLA, OU, and Nebraska—that may result in a loss or two, and we’ve all seen how teams that we don’t expect may rise up and beat us (after all, if Nebraska didn’t crap the bed against lowly Iowa State, they could have merited BCS at-large consideration). I’m prepared for a season of growing pains, but I think it is perfectly reasonable with the talent Texas has to hope for it all to come together and contend for some big prizes at the end.

by TheElusiveShadow on Aug 14, 2010 11:25 PM CDT up reply actions  

Quote me...

Texas will end the season with at least 3 losses. I’m not taking shots.

TT will give them fits, I don’t like them against OU or Texas A&M. I’m up in the air about Nebraska.

On to the Top 10. Oregon is not a top 10 team, after losing Massoli, and Blount, I don’t see how they can run the table against Cal, USC, Arizona, and Stanford especially with no defense. Boise State and TCU should be flipped, after the Fiesta bowl last year I can’t make a case as to why TCU would fair any better this year against them.

1. Alabama

2. Ohio State

3. Boise St

4. Oklahoma

5. Virginia Tech

6. Florida

7. Tie – Texas/Nebraska

9. Iowa

10. TCU

[Osborne's] school has this ultimatum from Texas to either spit or get off the pot. Commit to the Big 12, Texas is saying, or we'll take this Pac-10 offer, rake in more cash and kiss the Big 12 goodbye. It's on you, Nebraska. Texas is good at this sort of thing -- it could blame Cadillac for those Toyota brake problems and get away with it. - Dennis Dodd

by Screwface on Aug 14, 2010 9:35 PM CDT via mobile reply actions  

Question as to what your poll means, Jon...

…With your preseason poll, are you looking to project the year-end finishes (which I am assuming based on your looking at schedule, conference winners, etc), or where you would place them in order right now (as you mention that you follow the rule of placing the reigning champ without any major issues at #1)? Just curious as they seem to be opposite directions.

Overall, I think you do a good job of rationalizing most teams placement in the top 10. I don’t know if I agree with Oregon, but I think whoever comes out of the Pac-10, unless it’s someone coming out at 8-4 from a 3-way tie, deserves merit in the top 10 end of season. While they don’t deserve a top ranking right now, I’m going to say something crazy and pick Oregon State to win the Pac-10. I also agree with many of the posters that Boise should be above TCU until given a reason to be lower. They do return essentially the same team minus a cornerback, and I don’t think that potential weakness will be exploited by run-focused Virginia Tech or Oregon State (Jacquizzzzzz!). Two other teams that I think will be hovering near the top 10 will be Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. While they may not have the same cred as teams in the SEC, Big Ten, or Big 12, Butch Jones has followed Brian Kelly before at CMU with a similar QB situation (proven mobile QB – Zach Collaros started 7ish games) and turned it into 2 league titles, admittedly in the MAC. I also love what Jon Baldwin, Dion Lewis and Greg Romeus did at Pitt and believe they will have a stronger (albeit less experienced) QB in Tino Sunseri. They don’t deserve top 10 rankings right now, but should be in the initial discussion, in my opinion.

I’m surprised at the general perception that Big Ten teams or conference as a whole are inferior, especially from the Texas posters, but I’m new to these parts. I think OSU is one of the top 3 football teams right now (pains me to say it), as much as Alabama should be in any top 3. I can see Iowa in an 8-9-10 spot, that’s not it. I think I just get a general feeling toward the conference as a whole.

From the side of me that is a general college football fan, I really hope we get some new contenders in the national title game, as well as some of the conference champions. We’ve had a rut of top teams dominating the conference landscapes (Florida, Bama, Ohio State, Texas, Oklahoma, USC, Cincy-what?) that I’m ready for something new. Count me in, Husker fans, I’ll be rooting for you to take the Big 12. Maybe someone like Arkansas or South Carolina coming out of the SEC? Wisconsin or – I CAN DREAM – Michigan in the Big Ten? Good preseason top 10.

by Good Ol' Oakley on Aug 15, 2010 9:19 AM CDT reply actions  

yes

trying to project year-end finishes.

This is not a power ranking, and whether people like it or not, teams with less losses get ranked ahead of teams that don’t have them. That’s why TCU will get a high ranking. Maybe Texas should schedule them on a continual basis, and they’d probably stop showing up in the Top Ten at the end of the season.

Oh… Texas fans – I wish Nebraska were playing Boise State in the near future, but apparently we’re not. Scheduling sucks all around.

Go Big Red Nebraska!
Our Cobs Are Bigger Than Yours!
Corn Nation!
Twitter!
cornnation@gmail.com

by Jon Johnston on Aug 16, 2010 8:12 AM CDT up reply actions  

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