Can Nebraska Really Stop Kansas State's Daniel Thomas?
We've all heard it by now. Daniel Thomas is one of the best running backs in the country. Daniel Thomas is a monster. Daniel Thomas can take Kansas State on his back and beat No. 6 Nebraska on a Thursday night. But is he really even that good? Let's take a true look at what Kansas State's "talented" running back has done.
All this hype and fascination with Daniel Thomas needs to stop. Has anyone ever sat down and looked at what he has done? It really isn't all that deserving of the accolades he receieves. Let me break it down for you.
Thomas has played in 16 games since he stepped on campus in Manhattan, Kan. Of those 16 games he has rushed for over 100 yards eight times. Let's look at those eight teams: In 2009, UMass (28th ranked rush defense in FCS), Louisiana-Lafayette (99th), Tennessee Tech (104th in FCS), Colorado (80th), Kansas (56th). Now 2010, UCLA (76th), Missouri State (54th in FCS), Iowa State (99th).
Now let's look at the defenses ranked within the top 40 that he has faced in the past two years: 49 yards against Texas Tech (38th in rushing defense), 88 yards against Oklahoma (8th), 79 yards against Missouri (26th), 99 yards against Nebraska (9th) and 76 yards against UCF (30th).
Anybody notice a trend here? Now I am not saying he's not a productive collegiate runng back, but one of the best in the country? You've got to be kidding me. I know it's difficult not having a decent passing attack to accompany your ground game, but for a supposed top ten back in the country you've got to carry the load a little more than that. Racking up yards against mediocre competition shouldn't deem you the best running back in the conference, let alone the nation.
Point being I don't see Daniel Thomas succeeding too much this Thursday night. Nebraska will clearly gameplan for him and we saw what UCF did to bottle up Thomas and the Wildcat offense. Let me reiterate, I don't think Daniel Thomas is a bad back, he has to be pretty good to rack up 1,200 yards in a season. But we need to focus on who he's getting these yards against and how he's getting them. He's not breaking off mind-blowing 50-yard runs...he just pounds these smaller defensive fronts for four yards a carry. When you get 25 carries a game it's easy to rush for 100 yards. What's not easy is breaking a game-changer, especially against a worthy defense.
What you will see Thursday night shouldn't shock you. Nebraska will be yet another example of Thomas' skewed past. He will get the carries, but not the yards. But don't worry...K State gets the Jayhawks next weekend so he should surely make up for the lack of yards this week. Will he lead the Big 12 in rushing again? Probably yes. (Maybe Kendall Hunter or DeMarco Murray) Will he show up for a big game at least a couple times before his time in Manhattan is up? That my friends is left to be decided.
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Good post
I think that a lot of people are worried simply because of the fact that Nebraska has been gashed by Bobby Rainey and the SDSU RB Kyle Minnett. Bobby Rainey is actually a really good running back. He already has 508 yards through 4 games. That’s pretty darn good. But it seems pretty obvious that Daniel Thomas is better than Bobby Rainey.
However, I also think it’s pretty obvious that we’ve got inexperienced linebackers and the defensive scheme hasn’t really been designed to stop the run so far. That’s because our strength is in the peso scheme stopping the pass with our experienced secondary. That should change on Thursday. If K-State is going to win they are going to have to do it with Carson Coffman making plays, not on the back of Daniel Thomas.
Unfortunately, Nebraska’s offense is in a similar position…K-state is going to load the box and try not to let Martinez get the big play with his legs. That means he’s going to have to make the big plays with his arm, and I think he can do it and we’ve got the receiver talent to get it done as well.
great research, great point!
very good post, I think that sometimes when you have a conference (or division) that is as weak as the big 12 north is, save nebraska, people will latch on to any storyline they can. In this particular case it’s a better than average running back that “supposedly” could be their saving grace, if either one of our running backs got that many carries a game they would put up comparable yards.
Deja Vu All Over Again
Good article. This Daniel Thomas “boogeyman gonna get ya” hype reminds me of the pregame talk of how Jake Locker, Heisman hopeful, top ranked draft pick, highly rated quarterback was going to pick the Huskers apart. Our Suh-less defense was going to be sorely tested in a huge road game that would either vindicate Husker haters or validate Pelini’s “Nebraska is back” statement.
So here’s another team featuring a superman offensive player and looking use the Huskers as a stepping stone , it’s a road game, huge test, blah blah blah. Seems to me like I’ve herd this before.
by UltimaRatioRegum on Oct 6, 2010 1:24 PM CDT reply actions
agreed
Seems to me like I’ve herd this before.
When you’re the biggest game of the season for every team you play, I suppose these things are to be expected.
Sorry for the misspelling
“heard” not “herd”
I hate it when I do that!
by UltimaRatioRegum on Oct 7, 2010 3:20 PM CDT up reply actions
I guess I'm going to be the dissenting voice here.
Daniel Thomas is not “talented”; he is talented. Period. Sure, he’s played against poor defenses, but so has Taylor Martinez, and no one here is doubting his talent.
That doesn’t mean Nebraska can’t stop him – Nebraska has shut down plenty of genuinely talented players. But Daniel Thomas is a very good running back – one of the best in the Big 12. If he doesn’t show up Thursday night, then it might make sense to rip on him, but not before.
Agreed
I think Thomas is going to get his yards, especially with the way our run defense has looked so far this year.
That said, he’ll have to run for about 250 for K-State to have a chance (barring another SDSU effort out of our offense). He’s not going to do that, and KSU won’t have any success at all throwing. We’ve played two teams that are much, much, MUCH better at throwing than KSU, and held two NFL caliber qbs to 6 ints and way under 50 percent completion percentage.
I think Thomas will probably end up with around 150 yards rushing, KSU will end up with about 250 in total yardage. That’s the way its gone this year against our defense, and nothing on KSU’s offense makes me think tomorrow night will be any different.
"My hardest job is to convince the people of Nebraska that 10-1 is not a losing season." - Tom Osborne
Stats Don't Lie
My point to the article is that Daniel Thomas isn’t the type of running back that is going to beat anybody. He gets his stats because he gets 25-30 carries a game. He doesn’t break exceptionally long runs. Stats don’t lie to us. He has 2 runs in his career that have been for more than 40 yards. He succeeds against poor defenses. It’s just facts. He is a good running back, fits well with that team. But to say he is one of the best in the nation just doesn’t make much sense.
Yes but
Yes, Thomas will get his yards but yards don’t equal points. UNL’s Offense has way too many threats for KS to cover every play. That = points. We win!
Analysis needs more in-depth look.
First off, I don’t intend to put Daniel Thomas up next to Denard Robinson or LaMichael James, and say they’re equal. And I think he has been hyped a bit, but thats what the media does…However, I do think much more credit is due than what you give.
First off, pretty much every ‘top’ running back has beefed up his stats against bad teams; the only real exception might be DeMarco Murray (just looking at the top 10 RBs…). Second, getting beyond the 100+yds games against bad teams, if you look at the stats you posted of his rushing yardage against top 40 rushing D’s, the trend is actually the opposite. Though less than 100yds/game, the higher the rushing-D rank of opponent, the higher his yardage was…Do you see that trend? Note also that if Thomas got 1 more yard, he’d be on your list of teams he ran 100 yds on. In fact, he’s had 3 other games at 90-100 yards. Lastly, I believe the hype about DT comes from the fact that that he pretty much carries the team. KSU is 1-D, plain as day. Yet he pounds his way to get yardage against a defense that pretty prepare for him as the offense. And its largely that persistence that accounts for our being 4-0.
“He doesn’t go down easy,” lineman Jared Crick said. “He doesn’t take the easy way out. If he’s close to the sideline, he cuts it back and tries to get as many yards as he can, and we all respect that. We’re going to group tackle, fly to the ball and hope that settles that situation.” -Jarod Crick
KSU: 17 NU: 24 —If we play well.
KSU: 24 NU: 17 —If the stars align.
Sorry if I took up too much real estate.
Another DeMarco Murray-type back
Who actually gets much better stats against good teams than mediocre ones: Roy Helu. His top four yardage games last year, in order: Virginia Tech, Kansas, Florida Atlantic, Oklahoma. This year his top two games have been against Washington and Idaho, the two better teams (though still not good) Nebraska has faced.
by Cheeseandcorn on Oct 6, 2010 9:30 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, true.
He also had many more rushing attempts in all of those games in comparison to the other games (with exception to the SDSU game 59yds on 19Att). Overall, that says more about the offensive approach to those teams.
And that is what I think will really hurt KSU more than anything. You have 3 really good options for the run. A person might say, just like they say about KSU, “stop the run, stop Nebraska.” But the monumental difference is that ‘the run’ is Martinez, Helu, and Burkhead. Not just 1 RB.
Yes I see the trend...
However that would be the case for any statistical category if we looked at it. Shoot strength of schedule is based soley on your opponents winning %. Don’t you think a team in the bottom tier of the SEC or Big 10 or Big 12 would have a better winning % if they played in the WAC. Kentucky and Vandy are better than more than half lower tier conferences. The point is this is why they took out the strength of schedule component for the most part.
Sorry for rambling….back to Thomas. He’s a great back don’t get me wrong. And I know stellar running backs pad stats against lesser teams….the thing is they also manufacture against the best teams as well. Tough to say without any help around him as I mentioned butttttt if he really was the best running back in the Big 12 he needs to prove it on the biggest stage. What better than tomorrow night?
this article right here,
this is why people don’t like Husker fans.
Take a picture, put it in your wallet, and the next time you can’t fathom why anyone would not like “the classiest fans in football”, bust it out and then slap yourself in the face.
you don't see why
people have a problem with a condescending post in which you cherry pick numbers and conclude that the other team’s best player and all-conference rb “isn’t that good”.
I’m not even a k-state fan and your tone sickened me.
Agreed.
It’s an unnecessarily condescending post – apparently written from the perspective of someone who’s been hearing about Daniel Thomas on talk radio for the past week and a half. More reactionary than anything.
But I wouldn’t read too much into it about Husker fans in general – it’s just one guy blowing off steam.
by Cheeseandcorn on Oct 6, 2010 9:33 PM CDT up reply actions
He is good...
I’ve said he ‘s a good running back….just kinda skeptical. Maybe he’ll step up and run all over a good defense. Just havn’t really seen it yet. Not to mention there wasn’t a whole lot to chose from in the Big 12 rb pool for all-conference honors last year. Nonetheless…he’s a good running back and I’m sure a great kid. As for “cherry-picking” numbers I’m not really sure what you’re referring to.
haven't seen it yet, huh?
it’s funny that you draw the line at 100 yard games, as if 100 is some magic number that makes a game good or bad, since he rushed for 99 yards (on only 19 carries) against the best defense mankind has ever seen. Also, he picked up 88 on 18 carries against OU, 96 against ISU and 91 against aTm. If only they’d given him the ball a couple more times those games, then he’d have had really good games instead of a s*** ones.
In fact, in further slighting the 100 yard games he does have, you say, “when you get 25 carries a game it’s easy to rush for 100 yards,” as if that’s what’s been happening. In actuality he’s only carried the ball 25 times or more 5 times in 16 games, and he averaged only 20 carries per game last year.
Ok....
so if 100 yards isn’t the measuring stick what is? As said before I’m not downgrading that he can’t run the ball. The point to the article as stated is that he hasn’t had a signature performance against a good defense. Is rushing for 99 yards against Nebraska signature? Is rushing for 88 yards on Oklahoma signature? These are the situations that amazing running backs tend to thrive on. But hey as said before it’s an opinion article. And you as a reader are also entitled to your opinion. Didn’t want to come across unclassy in any sense. Just thought it was an interesting tidbit that pointed to some statistical backup. Maybe we’ll see something different tomorrow night. Who knows? Thanks for reading again!
what does a signature performance have to do with anything?
and why do you need one to be “that good”?
mpdalb and rg643
You both have made some valid comments. Of course I take exception to the put-down on Husker fans. Now here’s what I think…Daniel Thomas will rush for 83 yards against
the Huskers, and NU will win 38-13. Now, stop your bickering and get to bed. We have a big game tomorrow, and we need our sleep.
Thanks
Now tell me how I can put up a fan post. What I want to ask is this: Do you think the K-State fans actions in Thursday night’s game will have any determination on how the fans at the rest of our Big XII road games react when we visit them? If K-State fans are civil and respectful, do you think this will set the stage for the rest of our farewell tour, or will it vary from stadium to stadium?
Casn’t figure out how to make this a fan post.
Right under the search bar on the top right
It says:
New FanPost FanShot
Edit FanPosts FanShots
View Narrow Wide
Next to “New,” click “FanPost.”
by Cheeseandcorn on Oct 6, 2010 10:32 PM CDT up reply actions
Hmmmm....
if you go to the “Fanposts” on the menu bar above, at the upper right you should see something that says “Create New Fanpost”.
That should get you started…..
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by Jon Johnston on Oct 6, 2010 10:33 PM CDT up reply actions
Thanks, guys
I’m still new to computers, so I very much appreciate your patience and support. I Know it’s 2010, but we bought our first computer this year. Took a beginning computer class, which was immediately taken over by a bunch of 70-year-olds who have had computers for 10 to 15 years. Needless to say, the beginning basics were skimmed over in the first hour! Now, off to try my first Fanpost….
I'm right with you
redvalley. Keep on plugging away.
Buffalo born & bred. Bills fan since 1968.
by MtJulietTNBillsFan on Oct 7, 2010 2:29 AM CDT up reply actions
Inspirations
If you two have any questions about computer use, I’d love to help if I can. I think it’s so wonderful that older generations are getting on board with the Internet. I’ve gotten my mom and other relatives to join Facebook etc. and I’m teaching my future father-in-law computer basics and Internet navigation as well. She was amazed at how many of her friends were already there and he’s an avid fly fisherman and now spends hours on fishing forums and is having a ball.

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