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Perlman Admits BCS Unfair, But the BCS Ain't Going Away On It's Own

Nebraska-Lincoln Chancellor Harvey Perlman was sent to Washington as the sacrificial lamb for Senator Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) and Utah's push to rectify the woes of the BCS.  Perlman made it clear that the BCS is here to stay for the forseable future; the television contracts with Fox and ESPN are based on the current framework.  But Perlman did admit that the BCS "may be unfair."

Say what you will about the government getting involved with college football.  While it's clear that there are far more issues for the government to be involved in (the Bush recession, the Obama deficits, health care reform, Iran, North Korea, Afganistan, etc.), I find the idea that congressional opposition somehow justifies the BCS laughable.

And with all due respect to Chancellor Perlman's academic reputation, his track record in matters related to football is even lower than Congress's approval ratings.  After all, this is the man that gave Steve Pederson an endorsement and a contract extension, then was forced to fire Pederson three months later, claiming that he had no idea of all of the problems in the athletic department.  Which isn't a big deal by itself:  Perlman is supposed to be in charge of the entire institution, and Nebraska-Lincoln should be much more than the football program.

So why trot Perlman out in front of Congress?  It sounds like he did a great job of reciting the BCS talking points in a heated situation, but it won't convince anybody to change their opinions.

We all know why the BCS exists in it's current form:  the Presidents want it and while few agree, there also is little agreement as to what to replace the BCS with.

There are two solid reasons to maintain the current structure:

  • The tradition of the bowls (history, plus 60+ teams get to participate, with half of those teams finishing the season with a victory)
  • The length of the season (a team that plays in a conference championship game will play 14 games; 15 if they play Hawaii)

The problem is, of course, unless there are two and only two teams worthy of consideration for a national championship, the BCS fails.  The BCS has tweaked and tweaked their formula after complaints in 2000 (Miami) and 2001 (Colorado & Oregon), but the sad fact is that no matter how you tweak the formula, as long as there are more than two worthy candidates (see USC in 2003 and Auburn in 2004), the system fails.

If you're a fan of chaos and controversy, the current system works.  For everybody else, blech.

What's the solution?  I still maintain a playoff is not only the correct solution, it's the inevitable solution.  Make no bones about it, while Congress may not force the issue, if Utah and the Mountain West take it to the courts, they'll likely win in the end.

The bowls will likely struggle to survive in a post-BCS era; they'll be relegated to an "NIT" like situation.  Some teams will stay home in the postseason, to be sure...but they'll probably be better off for it.  Many bowl games only pay the NCAA minimum of $750,000 per team, which frequently doesn't cover expenses for teams to travel...especially when the bowls require teams to purchase tickets.  Attendance at many of these lower bowls is pathetic as well; played in converted baseball and soccer stadiums and sponsored by credit unions and infomercial products (how soon before we see the "Shamwow! Bowl").  The bowl system "jumped the shark" when the Independence Bowl was sponsored by "Weed Eater".

No, the bowl structure is an antiquity that really needs to go away.  Nebraska fans may miss spending New Years in Phoenix or Miami, but don't particularly want to remember Shreveport.  But what if the consolation prize was another game in Lincoln occasionally?  Imagine New Years Day being filled with multiple simultaneous college football games once again, but rather than games from warm weather sites, what if the games were in Lincoln, Madison, Ann Arbor, or State College?  More fans would attend, to be sure.

Here's my proposal:

Eight team playoff, with the first two rounds at campus sites in December.  All teams go into a bracket like in March Madness, with the four winners playing in week two in predetermined matchups.  (Winner of #1 vs. #8 seeds play the winner of the #4 vs. #5 seeds; winner of #2 vs. #7 plays the winner of #3 vs. #6.)

Winner gets three weeks off, and they'll play in the college national championship game in early January.  Why three weeks off?  First of all, there have been complaints about player fatigue.  Secondly, three weeks allows fans to make travel plans.  (People who think that the bowl structure could be modified to support a playoff have never traveled to a bowl game with their own money.)

What happens in the interim?  Simple:  the NIT of College Football.  Bowl games, or whatever you want to call them.  Anybody with a winning record is eligible to play one more game.  It could be a bowl game...or it could be on campus.  My guess is that teams will make much more money playing these games on campus than at bowl sites, but if the Rose Bowl wants to continue to match up a Big 10/Pac 10 matchup, they're certainly welcome to if teams from those conferences agree.  They'll probably survive.  The Fiesta and Cotton Bowls will probably also survive, since they'll be able to put together some attractive matchups in attractive locales.  But rather than playing the Emerald Bowl in San Francisco, those teams could play at one of their home fields in front of their home fans.

So what you get is the best of all possible worlds:

A true national champion

A holiday season filled with college football

Traditions can remain

Poll
What post-season structure would you like to see in College Football?
A playoff system based on the bowls
36 votes
This proposal, a playoff plus an extra game for everybody else
24 votes
The BCS as it stands, maybe tweaking the formula for selecting #1 and #2
21 votes
The bowl system the way it used to be 20 years ago
17 votes

98 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 9 comments |

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Personally prefer playoff but unseeded plus-one is more likely

I wrote a couple of blog posts in support of a similar 8-team playoff, although it was slightly different in that they used the current 4 BCS bowls as quarterfinal games:

http://frankthetank.wordpress.com/2006/07/28/the-best-of-both-worlds-a-modest-proposal-for-a-college-football-playoff-that-keeps-the-bowls/

http://frankthetank.wordpress.com/2008/11/20/the-presidential-commission-on-the-establishment-of-a-college-football-playoff-system/

However, I’m coming around to the realization that a plus-one system is a much more likely scenario at this time. There are a variety of reasons for this, including but not limited to largely saving today’s bowl system, preserving bowl tie-ins and the importance of the regular season, and still having 10 total BCS spots so that the SEC, Big Ten, and Big 12 can continue to regularly send 2 teams each to BCS games (and the extra revenue that comes with the extra participant).

I’m not saying that a plus-one is better from a pure fan’s perspective, but the “bowls as the NIT” scenario is exactly what the BCS conferences want to avoid. For all of the talk about money, remember that college conferences largely care more about maximizing their positions in the worst case scenario than shooting for the moon in the best case scenario. As a result, having a guaranteed high revenue game in Pasadena or Miami (or even the non-BCS bowls in places like Orlando, Tampa, and Dallas) every single season trumps a postseason game in Ann Arbor or Lincoln that may happen every once in awhile and isn’t guaranteed. At the same time, even if a playoff system were to generate more money in total, that doesn’t matter to the BCS conferences if their revenue advantage over the non-BCS conferences is lessened. The revenue gap means more to the BCS than total revenue. The bowl system (whether we’re talking about the BCS bowls or even the second tier games) maintains that revenue gap more than anything else because they are almost entirely about conference ties and which teams travel well and draw TV viewers (where almost all of those spoils go to the power conferences). So, the bowls becoming the college football equivalent of the NIT is a situation that is completely untenable to the BCS conferences. A plus-one system would likely preserve the other bowls as relevant games from a revenue perspective even compared to an 8-team playoff system.

So, I’ve set forth the following proposal for an unseeded plus-one system (with the Cotton Bowl added as a new 5th BCS bowl):

http://frankthetank.wordpress.com/2009/07/07/reexamining-the-plus-one-college-football-option/

This system is admittedly not perfect. My aim here is to propose something that the BCS conferences will actually agree to in real life from their own rational economic perspective, which means that they will maintain or even expand all of the revenue and access advantages as they do today. That might be supposedly “unfair”, but people can’t be “shocked” that the BCS conferences will flip the proverbial bird at proposals that almost always advocate taking away money and access to them (i.e. NCAA Tournament-style playoffs). If we want change, then we have to be pragmatic here. Otherwise, we’ll be arguing about the college football postseason for the next 30 years.

by Frank the Tank on Jul 13, 2009 4:16 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Hey....

you say that last line like it’s a bad thing…… I mean, hell, ask a Penn State fan about ’94 and a Michigan fan about ’97, and you can have hours of fun!

The economics will change in the next couple years….. so colleges will be looking for more money, something to pay for their athletic departments. I can see a plus-one getting more traction then, but it will create more controversy than what we have now.

Go Big Red Nebraska!
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Corn Nation!
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by corn blight on Jul 13, 2009 7:45 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

CBS is paying $1 billion dollars to televise the NCAA basketball tournament...

Every TV expert I’ve heard suggests that a college football playoff would pay even more than that. So the money argument doesn’t wash with me.

Also, I simply cannot fathom a way in which to host a playoff through the bowls…which would require fans of a national championship game to travel to three away games, most with short notice. Fans of teams like USC, Florida, and LSU wouldn’t mind. They’ve got two bowl games sites in their own backyard that are easy drives; no airlines.

Will Husker fans fly three weeks in a row? Some, yes. But it would be a struggle for most, and most will sit out one or more games.

Using the bowl games as sites adds to costs (two teams needing to travel) and cuts down on revenue (bowl stadiums are smaller than most college stadiums).

by Husker Mike on Jul 13, 2009 8:32 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's about the revenue gap as opposed to total revenue

I don’t think that there’s any question that a college football playoff would make more money than the current system in total. The issue, though, is how that money is distributed. The NCAA Tournament money is more or less distributed among the conferences equally both large and small (with some allocations being based on bids and credits for wins in the tourney). In the bowl system, though, the BCS conferences earn well over 90% of all postseason football revenue. At the same time, for as much as the NCAA Tournament is a great event, it also completely dilutes the value of the basketball regular season both financially and competitively. The Big Ten receives $2 million per year from CBS for its marquee basketball games, compared to $100 million per year from ABC/ESPN for its marquee football games. A similar spread exists for all of the other BCS conferences (except for the Big East, which has a horrible football contract that was negotiated right after it was raided by the ACC). Any playoff system would also dilute the value of those regular season TV rights just as they have in basketball, which is also a financial disincentive for the BCS conferences since they receive the lion’s share of that money.

The BCS conferences would rather make a little less money if it means that they are still making a whole lot more money than the non-BCS conferences than making a little more money but the non-BCS schools being closer in terms of stature. The revenue gap and how money is distributed are every bit as important, if not more important, than the total dollars involved.

by Frank the Tank on Jul 14, 2009 12:43 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

It's not the NCAA Tournament...

It’s the Conference Tournaments, because EVERYONE gets in.

Theoretically, Nebraska could lose EVERY game leading up to March, STILL go to the Conference tournament, win it, and go to the NCAA Tournament. THAT is what throws the regular season out the window, not the fact that there’s a National Championship tourney.

If the conference tourneys were, say, a best 2-of-3 against the top two teams in the conference after the season, then it would mean more. Fewer teams get the extra playing time, but more “legitimate” teams would get in. It seems every year there’s one 15 or 16 seed with a losing record. No way should they be involved in the tournament.

Football wouldn’t work that way. You just have the season, and then (depending on the conference) a championship game between two teams. That’s it. And those teams get to represent the conference in the tournament, along with a few at-large teams (depending on the size of said tournament).

Frankly, I’d like to de-emphasize the season just a little bit. Far too many teams (Nebraska included) tend to schedule creampuff teams from the bottom of the 1A barrel or the 1AA ranks, because they don’t dare schedule several tough teams and start the conference slate with 2 or 3 losses. That takes you out of the race right away. Better to beat Sisters of the Poor St and Northwest Brothers of the Blind than lose to Florida and Texas. I’d rather see Nebraska playing Arkansas and LSU, along with Virginia Tech, instead of Arkansas St and Louisiana-Lafayette.

by Wolvie on Jul 15, 2009 12:11 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

scheduling

does suck across the board. I’d rather see us playing better teams as well, but the athletic department makes about $3M per home game. Until the fans or TV stop paying attention and make the teams suffer monetarily somehow, this won’t change.

And that’s sad, because there are a LOT of sucky games any more.

Go Big Red Nebraska!
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by corn blight on Jul 15, 2009 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I also agree about the travel comment

That’s why I think that a plus-one system is much more likely since traveling to one extra game that’s the national championship is much more reasonable than having a fan base travel to 3 straight neutral site games (or even 4 of you include a conference championship game). People are overstating the value of on-campus playoff games, though. Part of the reason why the bowls are lucrative is because those bowls and their communities pay out money above and beyond just the TV dollars. We’re never going to see games on campus if there’s a playoff (just as the NCAA Tournament is always played at neutral sites even on the opening rounds).

by Frank the Tank on Jul 14, 2009 12:50 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

I've always maintained that this problem is deeper than just "no playoff"

The bottom line is this: as long as the non-conference schedule comes FIRST in college football, you can’t institute a playoff.

If you had the conference schedules FIRST, you could have all the teams play out their conference scenarios until there was a list of conference champions. Then pick out a handful of wildcards to round out the playoff bracket. While everyone else runs off and plays their non-conference games, the playoff teams would do their business until there were two in the championship game. The remaining teams would be seeded in their Bowls like normal.

You could have future at-large spots determined by end-of-the-year BCS agregates to help keep everyone’s motivation up after they were eliminated (e.g. top four agregrate conferences each get an at-large the following year or something like that).

Of course, it will never happen, but I like to dream. The conference games have to go first for any pragmatic scenario, IMO.

by BMN on Jul 14, 2009 7:06 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

PLAYOFFS! 16 Teams

I would travel for 6 weeks straight, quit my job, get a divorce, whatever it takes to see the HUSKERS in a PLAYOFF!

The BCS is a great tool to determine playoff ranking. Play conference games ONLY,
6 or 7 games. Then a conference playoff game. Every Conference Champion is in the Playoffs. That gives you 11 Teams (Indy’s join a conference) , With 5 spots left to be filled by BCS Rankings.
So you can still get 2 or 3 teams from one conference.
The ensuing 15 Games……played at higher ranked home field………..OH my Dream!
Bowls could take the 15 playoff games and make a damn killing.

At the very least 8 teams, or 32….anything to make it a playoff,, hence a REAL CHAMPIONSHIP.

by Pornhusker on Jul 16, 2009 11:58 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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