In Perspective: Nebraska vs Kansas - Where The Game Will Be Won

by Jon Johnston on Nov 12, 2009 8:30 AM CST in Football Comment 2 comments

Matt O'Hanlon - The Blackshirts need to keep getting turnovers and setting the Nebraska offense with a short field. Otherwise, the season is lost.

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I don't hate saying I told you so..... but when you've been married 20 years, you have a tendency to point out the times you're right because they seem to be so few. Last week I stated that the Oklahoma game would be close and be won by the team that came up with a few big plays. Well.... Prince Amukamara's interception and return to the one was all it took to set up the winning points.

The Oklahoma game established a blueprint for Husker victory the rest of the season - gain turnovers, play field position, and establish a running game.

	Nebraska		Kansas
	National	Big 12	National	Big 12
3rd Down Conversions	66	8	39	3
Red Zone Conversions (Score %)	97	11	41	6

Turnover Margin	61	7	79	10
Sacks	11	3	15	2
Tackles for Loss	21	3	28	5
Sacks Allowed	30	4	88	10
Punting (Avg)	59	6	60	7
Punt Returns	43	5	91	10
Kickoff Returns	74	10	65	8
Penalties (Yds/G)	108	9	35	1

In one week's time, Nebraska dropped from 36th nationally to 66th in third down conversions. Converting one of 14 third downs against Oklahoma will do that to a team.

Good news! Nebraska's turnover margin rank improved from 89th to 61st after picking off five Landry Jones passes. The Huskers are now even on the season. Remove the eight turnovers against Iowa State, and we'd be respectable, somewhere around 20th nationally.

On to the upcoming game....

Given the aforementioned blue print, there are some key statistics that should give Husker fans more confidence heading into the Kansas game. Remember that the Jayhawks are on a four-game losing streak - they may be a team ready to fold on the season. They were originally projected to win the Big 12 North, and stand at 1-4 in conference play.

Remember that bit about turnover margin? The Jayhawks don't have an anomaly like a game with eight turnovers to explain away their issues in that category. In their last three games, they're -5 in turnovers, and in conference play also -5. They're doing better at home, though, with a +2 margin.

The other key is sacks allowed. Back in May, I pointed out that offensive line experience counts for quite a bit. That fact has born out, as Kansas had the least amount of experience returning in the Big 12. Kansas could counter by not throwing the ball as much, but they haven't been able to establish much of a running game.

Put the Jayhawks offensive line against the Blackshirt defensive line, and you have an enormous mismatch. Sacks lead to pressure, which leads to more turnovers. If the Blackshirts play with the same intensity that they did against Oklahoma (and there's no reason to believe they won't), they should feast on the Jayhawk offense.

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Just a few things that jumped out at me...

Kansas isn’t too shabby at getting sacks themselves. Our O line is going to have to stay awake, and AVOID THE PENALTIES. Because if stats of 3/4 of the season tell much, they say that the big blue giant down in lawrence has his guys focused on fundamental, penalty-free football. We can’t shoot ourselves in the foot and expect to win.

In every other way, I totally expect our boys on D to eat these jayhawks alive. Wouldn’t be surprised if O’hanlon got another pick or two, or at least a handful of great hits on Reesing while he’s running for his life. Just watched the OU//KU highlights – The sooners saw a lot of draws (or at least Reesing trying to be mobile) and they stopped the run like i’ve been used to seeing out of us.

Lastly, here’s just hoping that Bo let’s our D recover and doesn’t make ’em pratice too hard early in the week…they need to recover BIG time.

by js17 on Nov 12, 2009 9:40 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

We still...

need our offense to step up and get some points. Our defense is pretty good but our offense can’t count on them to win the game every week. I don’t know what the offense needs to do but they need to get it going. Maybe we are like OU and simply don’t have the horses to get it done right now.

by Huzkerfan on Nov 12, 2009 10:13 AM CST reply actions 0 recs