Under The Hood: A Light Statistical Comparison for Nebraska vs Missouri

by Jon Johnston on Oct 1, 2009 8:00 AM CDT in Nebraska Husker Football

I turned my Macbook Pro into Apple today for repair. I hate it when I do that, it's like.... well.... it's like missing an appendage to be honest. You have to make due with what you got until you get through it. So... if formatting looks a little weird it's because I'm missing my regular tool set and I'm typing on a clacky Thinkpad replacement laptop. Argh!

A couple of years ago we used a statistical format that was completely stolen from Peter Bean at Burnt Orange Nation. At the time, we called it "Under the Hood". We used it throughout most of 2007 (as I recall, I try not to think about that year much lest I wake the children with yet another nightmare), but I don't think we used it last season.

I'm going to resurrect it this year if for no other reason that it's a quick and easy look at some statistics. It's not heavy lifting (although it takes a while to properly format), and there isn't that much magic to it. All statistics came from cfbstats.com

Think of it as a nice wheat Belgium beer. If you're into the Guinness of statistics, Rock M Nation does this "BTBS" series you might be interested in. There's a part of me that would love to get more geeky on this, but I'm not sure how well they apply to the college game. They make sense for the NFL because the structure is such that the teams are equal. No one can say that about NCAA football - it's the essence of inequality and it creates the chaos, mayhem and anarchy that we love every weekend. Do you really want to under that, to control it, or just experience it as it happens?

Plus, there's another part of me that says I'd better spend more time with my kids before they grow up and leave home. They already have hit me with the nickname "information nerd".

First, we'll take a look at how the two teams compare offensively and defensively with one third of the season already complete. I did not include national rankings on these because.... well, because I think they're a distraction right now. It does not matter that Nebraska is

Offensive Comparisons

	Nebraska	Missouri
Rush YPG	183.75	143
Rush YPC	5.65	3.79
Rush TDs	10	4

Pass YPG	256.3	310
Pass YPA	8.4	8.7
Pass TDs	8	12

QB Rating	152.87	166.26
Total Offense	440	453
Scoring Offense	39.3	36.8

Defensive Comparisons

	Nebraska	Missouri
Rush YPG	113.25	133.75
Rush YPC	3.08	3.74
Rush TDs	2	5

Pass YPG	169.8	218
Pass YPA	5.9	5.7
Pass TDs	1	3

Total Defense	283	351.8
Scoring Defense	7	15.5

Nebraska vs Missouri Positional Ranks

Total Offense Rank	Nebraska Opponent	Total Defense Rank	Total Offense Rank	Missouri Opponent	Total Defense Rank
49	Florida Atlantic	111	81	Illinois	90
72	Arkansas State	68	82	Bowling Green	88
77	Virginia Tech	38	xx	Furman	xx
91	Louisiana-Lafayette	84	66	Nevada	111
72.25	Average	75.25	76.33	Average	96.3

*Furman is not included because they are not a FBS team.

- There's a number of things that should jump out immediately - the first of which is the fact that Nebraska has given up only three TD's through four games. Of course, if it were two TD's, the Huskers would be 4-0 and probably in the Top 10, given that TD wasn't given up at the right time.

- On offense, look at the rushing game for both teams. Missouri's run game has been fairly anemic even against lousy competition. A 3.79 yard per carry average sucks, especially when it was expected that this would be a strong point for them entering the season.

- I'm purposefully not going to say much more than this so as to open it up for discussion.

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Comments

I really think this game is on Zac Lee...

Your advantage in the run game is enormous on both sides of the ball and I’d expect something like a 200-50 type advantage if you play up to your ability.

Meaning, the only way you could surrender that advantage is if Lee is as flustered as he was in Blacksburg. If he’s competent and can keep you semi-balanced and productive in the red zone, you guys should be fine.

by hiphopopotamus on Oct 1, 2009 8:20 AM CDT reply actions

disagree

I think the game is on our DLine and Secondary. Gabbert is a little squirel back there and scrambles to make plays. His recievers use that time to extend the play and get open.

Missouri’s OLine is one of the worst in the league thus far. Not to say they wont get better, or that they’re best game of the season be vs us (it wont) but its just not good. Our Dline though, could be argued the best in the Big12 and one of the best in the country. Especially now with fresh legs of Cameron Meredith and Baker Stien, etc to help rest out big guns.

Anyhow, I say we have to get to Gabbert, who has been sacked a lot this season already. We will rack up some sacks, i gauruntee it. But when he does scramble, we have to contain him, and our secondary has to stick to the Wideouts, or stick to thier assignments. I think we do this, and its our game to lose. They’re run game won’t work against us, and our offense will have enough points on the board in the end to win us the game. Ive seen 2 missouri games and 3 nebraska games. I think we roll by 17 points in the end. But given our fist conference game, and on the road, i still worry about losing this one.

The north title is in our hands if we come out with the win, and statistically, and on film, we’re the favorites against missouri, even if the guys in Vegas say otherwise.

by davidhusker on Oct 1, 2009 10:09 AM CDT up reply actions

This game is wholly on the offensive lines.

I’m sure we’ll get into this more next week once the crosstalk between RMN and CN really picks up more.

I don’t need to tell you guys that Nebraska has one of the best D-Lines that Missouri will face all year. Missouri’s running game has been pretty abysmal, and against Nevada, Gabbert really had to do a lot on his own to avoid the rush in the passing game. The disintegration of the MU O-Line, which most expected to pretty solid, has been puzzling as hell.

Now, Missouri’s rush D has been suspect as well, so Helu really could do some damage. But if you get stuck in passing downs, Missouri has the ability to get after Lee. The big key to the game is going to be Nebraska staying out of passing situations.

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by RPT on Oct 1, 2009 10:14 AM CDT reply actions

QB Comparison

I can’t claim to watch every MU game this season, but I did watch vs Nevada. The announcers basically proclaimed Gabbert the second coming, but I just didn’t see it. He was continually throwing to receivers without a defender w/in 10 yards. He did scramble fairly well, but I don’t think his arm strength an accuracy are all that grand.

Lee also does not impress me with arm strength or accuracy. Even against the La Laf, his passes where on the complete opposite side of where they needed to be. When they should have been inside, they were outside and visa versa. When throwing the out pass, his ball seems to float a bit.

I think this game comes down to each D-Line and how much they can do to shake already shaky QB’s. Bottom Line, the NU line is better and that will push the victory over to the Red.

by VarangianGuard on Oct 1, 2009 1:40 PM CDT reply actions