NIT Round 2 -- #3 Nebraska at #2 Ole Miss Preview

Nebraska (20-12) at Mississippi (22-10)
Game Time: 8:00 PM CDT
TV: ESPNU (No webcast)
Radio: Husker Sports Network (Listen online)
Opponent's Blogs: Strands of Crepe Paper, Parrish Alford
All-time Series: Tied 1-1 (Nebraska won in Lincoln in 1977, Ole Miss in Oxford in 1978)

The Husker meet the Ole Miss Rebels for the first time in 30 years in tonight's NIT second round game in Oxford, MS.  The winner advances to play the winner of tonight's game between UAB and Virginia Tech for a chance to advance to the NIT Final Four in New York.

Both teams had similar seasons -- both had impressive non-conference records, and struggled out of the gate in conference play, before making a late-season push.  However, these teams are a distinct contrast in style.  The Huskers are a deliberate, efficient team that likes to play tough defense and limit their opponent's possessions (averaging 63.9 possessions per game), while Ole Miss likes to push the tempo and score a lot of points (averaging 71.4 possessions per game).  The Huskers are 10th nationally in Defensive efficiency, while the Rebels are 36th in Offensive efficiency.  Per game, the Rebels average 79.6 points per game, but score at a blistering 84.7 per game at home.

Obviously, the Husker's ablility to dictate tempo in tonight's game is going to be the biggest key for victory.  Nebraska's offense relies on patience in finding in the open shot; if they get into a race with Ole Miss, they will be in trouble.  However, if they are able to limit the Rebels' possessions and force them into long possessions and bad shots (like they were able to do against most of their opponents over the past few weeks), they should be able to hold the Rebels well below their scoring average and stand a good shot at beating them.

What to Watch:
Ole Miss has no post player over 6'8", so Aleks Maric will probably be able have his way down low.  If the Rebels try to double- or triple-team Maric, it should open up shots for the Husker guards.

For Ole Miss, keep an eye on Dwayne Curtis, the Rebels' senior Center.  Curtis averages 15.1 PPG and 9.5 RPG.  He'll have his hands full with Maric, and if he gets into foul trouble, it will take away one of their two most potent offensive threats, and be a huge edge for the Huskers.  Also watch out for their freshman PG Chris Warren, who is good at feeding the ball inside, and is also the Rebels' leading scorer at 15.5 PPG.  If he gets a lot of open looks, it could be a long night for Nebraska.

Prediction:
The outcome of this game will be largely dependent on tempo.  If the score gets into the upper 70s, Ole Miss will probably win comfortably.  Likewise, if the score is in the upper 50s, then Nebraska has probably controlled the game and stymied the Rebels' scoring.  I expect the game to be somewhere in between, in the low-to-mid 60s, with the game decided in the final two minutes, 65-62 Nebraska.