Gator Bowl: Nebraska vs Clemson - Clemson's Pass Defensive Stats Skewed By Lousy Competition
by corn blight
on Dec 28, 2008 10:18 AM CST
in Football
9 comments
Let's face it, Husker fans know next to nothing about Clemson, other than they're orange, they play in the ACC, and they beat us in 1982 to win their only national title. It's hard to get a handle on a team we're playing only the second time in school history, but in the next couple days I'm going to give it the old college try.
The most glaring point about Clemson is their pass defense. They come into the Gator Bowl ranked:
- 9th in the nation at pass efficiency defense
- 9th in scoring defense
- 10th in pass defense
Clemson's defense sounds awesome, like a great match up against a Nebraska offense that will want to get a passing game going. Taking a closer look at Clemson's season tells a different story - that the Tigers didn't face opponents who were capable of throwing the ball
Here's Clemson's 2008 schedule:
Alabama L - 10-34
Citadel (FCS-Div IAA) W - 45-17
N.C. State W - 27-9
South Carolina State (FCS-Div IAA) W 54-0
Maryland L - 20-17
@Wake Forest L - 12-7
Georgia Tech L - 21-17
@Boston College W 27-21
@Florida State L 41-27
Duke W 31-7
Virginia W 13-3
South Carolina W 31-14
Let's look at each team's opponent rankings for total offense and total defense.
| Nebraska - Clemson : Opponent's Positional Rankings |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Offense Rank | Nebraska Opponent | Total Defense Rank | -- | Total Offense Rank | Clemson Opponent | Total Defense Rank |
| 24 | Western Michigan | 83 | -- | 56 | Alabama | 3 |
| 112 | San Jose State | 21 | -- | ## | Citadel (FCS-Div IAA) | ## |
| 63 | New Mexico State | 75 | -- | 89 | NC State | 81 |
| 107 | Virginia Tech | 7 | -- | ## | SC State (FCS-Div IAA) | ## |
| 6 | Missouri | 99 | -- | 76 | Maryland | 59 |
| 4 | Texas Tech | 72 | -- | 101 | Wake Forest | 19 |
| 44 | Iowa State | 111 | -- | 47 | Georgia Tech | 22 |
| 49 | Baylor | 87 | -- | 94 | Boston College | 6 |
| 3 | Oklahoma | 65 | -- | 55 | Florida State | 14 |
| 22 | Kansas | 93 | -- | 102 | Duke | 61 |
| 35 | Kansas State | 117 | -- | 104 | Virginia | 41 |
| 93 | Colorado | 79 | -- | 97 | South Carolina | 12 |
| 46.83 | Average | 75.75 | -- | 82.1 | Average | 31.8 |
Clemson has played against some pretty awful offensive teams all season. They have played against some decent defenses, however. Is this the case of a whole conference being great at defense (the ACC), or is it that ACC teams just suck at offense?
Let's look at another item that may explain the high numbers they have against the pass - opponent's quarterback rankings and efficiency. In this case, the quarterback ranking is by their rating, not by yards per game. Per NCAA stats -To qualify, player must have played in 75% of his team's games and have a minimum of 15.0 pass attempts per game played.
| Quarterback, Opponent | Rating | Nat'l Rank |
| John Parker Wilson, Alabama | 123.81 | 65 |
| Russell Wilson, NC State | 134.29 | 42 |
| Chris Turner, Maryland | 118.74 | 74 |
| Riley Skinner, Wake Forest | 126.18 | 59 |
| Georgia Tech not listed in Top 100 | ## | ## |
| Chris Crane, Boston College | 104.42 | 99 |
| Christian Ponder, Florida State | 113.03 | 89 |
| Thaddeus Lewis, Duke | 122.96 | 67 |
| Marc Verica, Virginia | 110.59 | 92 |
| Chris Smelley, South Carolina | 115.25 | 83 |
Compare to the list of quarterbacks Nebraska faced this season.... the competition is not even close.
| Quarterback, Opponent | Rating | Nat'l Rank |
| Tim Hiller, Western Michigan | 148.43 | 17 |
| Kyle Reed, San Jose State | 122.24 | 69 |
| Chase Holbrook, New Mexico State | 141.31 | 28 |
| VT not listed | ## | ## |
| Chase Daniel, Mizzou | 164.76 | 7 |
| Graham Harrell, Texas Tech | 163.04 | 9 |
| Austen Arnaud, Iowa State | 127.45 | 56 |
| Robert Griffin, Baylor | 142.00 | 27 |
| Sam Bradford, Oklahoma | 186.30 | 1 |
| Todd Reesing, Kansas | 145.65 | 21 |
| Josh Freeman, Kansas State | 136.49 | 34 |
| Cody Hawkins | 118.14 | 77 |
Points:
- Clemson hasn't faced an offense like Nebraska's yet this season. The best offense they faced - Georgia Tech - finished the season ranked dead last in passing, so it's not all that surprising that the Tigers' pass defense is ranked so highly.
- Clemson faced some pretty good defenses, but the efficiency ratings indicate that the ACC sucks at passing.
- Joe Ganz rating is ranked nationally at 14th, with a rating of 156.80. The Tigers faced no one close to Ganz' abilities.
- Clemson's Cullen Harper is ranked 51st, with a rating of 129.26.
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Gleaned from cruising Clemson blogs
The Clemson blogs have been saying in recent weeks that the Big12 doesn’t play good defense. That’s why they score so much on each other. Their argument is that the ACC has more defensive speed. And that the Big12 teams can’t score at will on the ACC.
Horse Farmer
by Teamster on
Dec 28, 2008 3:52 PM CST
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I find it hard to believe that no one plays D in the B12
With Bo, Stoops, and Chizek, as head coaches and former D coordinators, and the addition of Muschamp to Texas, and the history of strong Defenses at KU under Mangino, I cannot believe that suddenly the B12 stopped playing Defense.
The speed of the ACC may be of some concern, but I really think that the B12 offenses are very much for real.
I guess we’ll see once the B12 starts playing in some Bowl games.
You can't possibly be a scientist if you mind people thinking that you're a fool.
~Wanko the Sane
by JLew on
Dec 28, 2008 7:20 PM CST
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wow.
that’s rationalization at it’s best.
Given that statement, it’s time to do the next step in this analysis, then. Had a long drive back from Nebraska, time to think about what I didn’t do…. or didn’t discover from this first post.
So, more to come.
Go Big Red Nebraska!
Our Cobs Are Bigger Than Yours!
Corn Nation!
by corn blight on
Dec 28, 2008 7:49 PM CST
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I've heard...
simliar arguments from Minnesota fans w/regards to Kansas’ offense…I guess all these theories around the country will be put to rest if the Big 12 takes care of business over the next week as I expect they will.
Some people are like Slinkies...not really good for anything but they make you smile when pushed down the stairs.
by Denverjhawk on
Dec 29, 2008 8:07 AM CST
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Defense
Your premise is correct. We have not played a really good offensive team this year. GT’s wing-T is difficult to stop and they can run the ball against just about anyone, but they don’t really throw. Alabama is pretty balanced, and we didnt even get off the bus that day. Thankfully the man at fault was fired.
FSU does throw, and lit us up. That day though, our defense was just not well-prepared and the lack of intensity and poor tackling really did us in.
I have thought all along that Nebraska is going to be the best offense we’ve faced, at least statistically.
Its difficult to gauge the Big XII defenses; the teams that pass all the time really execute fabulously and there are several NFL-caliber QBs that are skewing the numbers of what otherwise could be really good defenses. I am in Louisiana and have seen Pelini’s defenses in person, and think he’ll have a good plan against us.
However, I don’t believe the overall quality of defense is as good in the Big XII as it is in the ACC.
by DrB on
Dec 28, 2008 8:24 PM CST
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So the question becomes
Is NU’s offense greater than Clemson’s defense? Or maybe they cancel each other out and it’s NU’s defense vs Clemson’s offense?
Anyway I think the matchup favors NU.
Look at Ganz’s numbers, you have not seen anything like that yet.
You can't possibly be a scientist if you mind people thinking that you're a fool.
~Wanko the Sane
by JLew on
Dec 28, 2008 8:41 PM CST
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good defenses?
Looking at the ACC so far in bowl games, FSU does seem to have a good offense as they soundly beat Wisconsin. UNC gave up a lot of yards and lost to WVU and Miami played well defensively, but lost to Cal.
I heard Sagarin ranks the ACC the best conference in the NCAA, but their bowl record, 1-2 so far, doesn’t show it.
Looking at ACC standings you can see the standings are very close. This suggests that ACC teams generally play at about the same level – most of the teams are about as good as each other. FSU’s record puts them among one of the better teams in the ACC, Miami’s and UNC are in the middle…
Cal and WVU have middle-tiered offensives (about 46th and 65th respectively). Two middle of the pack ACC teams lost to two teams with middle of the pack offenses.
Looking at Clemson… you have a middle of the pack ACC team going against Nebraska’s 12th ranked offense (total off).
I think Clemson will be the 3rd most difficult D NU has faced after Oklahoma and Va Tech. Our offense was able to move it against both of those teams even though we lost. NU has seen defenses as good as or better than Clemson, but Clemson hasn’t faced any offenses as good as ours.
by belacoz on
Dec 28, 2008 11:41 PM CST
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It's easy to dismiss it as a conference thing...
…so that’s why you have to look at some of the non-conference games to put everything in perspective. I look at what Oklahoma did against TCU and Cincinnati as validation of the Big XII. Baylor took a bowl eligible UConn team to the wire on the road. I don’t think the ACC has any victories along the same lines.
by Husker Mike on
Dec 29, 2008 5:24 PM CST
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